IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine - November 2020 - 47

as it is known to be an adaptive learning
rate optimization algorithm designed specifically for training deep neural networks
[32]. The learning rate was set initially at
0.005 and was decreased by a factor of 0.2 at
every 200 epochs. The number of maximum
epochs was chosen to be 1000. In order to
avoid exploding gradients effect, a threshold
1 was set as the gradient threshold.

... the decomposed IMFs with similar center
frequencies are used to train separate RNNs. Here
we further work out the phase of each decomposed
IMF corresponding to the CC, T, and H signals for both
states using Gabor's complex analytical signal.

V. Results and Discussion

Figure 14 shows the predicted number of cases of COVID-19
for CC-IMF1 (Figure 14(b)), CC-IMF2 (Figure 14(c)) and CCIMF3 (Figure 14(d)) and the sum of all of them (FigureĀ 14(a))
for the state of Maharashtra conducted on the test set. The figures show the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) corresponding to each case. The results show that the model can predict
the future number of cases within an acceptable range of error.

However, Figure 14(b) shows that the predicted value of the
signal deviates from its expected value at the right end of the
signal. This is likely due to the end effect arising from the spline
method used in the smoothing procedure to smooth the feature TR. This effect is also evident in Figure 2(c). As can be
seen in the figure, the right end of the signal is slightly tilted
downward whereas this is not the case in the original signal
of Figure 2(a). Therefore, one may argue that smoothing the

120

180
160

100

140
120
Phase (rad)

Phase (rad)

80
60
40
20

-20

0

10

20

30

40 50
Days
(a)

60

70

80

60

0
-20

90

90

160

80

140

70

120
Phase (rad)

50
40
30
20

CC-IMF2
T-IMF2
H-IMF2

10
0
-10

0

10

20

30

40 50
Days
(c)

60

70

80

CC-IMF3
T-IMF3
H-IMF3

20

60
Phase (rad)

80
40

CC-IMF2
T-IMF2
H-IMF2

0

100

0

10

20

30

40 50
Days
(b)

60

80

90

100
80
60
40
CC-IMF3
T-IMF3
H-IMF3

20
0
90

70

-20

0

10

20

30

40 50
Days
(d)

60

70

80

90

FIGURE 16 Unwraped phase corresponding to the IMFs of CC, T and H signals of states Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. (a) Maharashtra (IMF2).
(b) Maharashtra (IMF3). (c) Tamil Nadu (IMF2). (d) Tamil Nadu (IMF3).

NOVEMBER 2020 | IEEE COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE MAGAZINE

47



IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine - November 2020

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