IEEE Robotics & Automation Magazine - March 2012 - 119

THE FUTURE IS ROBOTS

Robotics Trends for 2012
By Erico Guizzo and Travis Deyle

hat's in store for robotics in
2012? Nearly a third of the
year is already behind us, but
we thought we'd spend some
time looking at the months ahead and
make some predictions about what's
going to be big in robotics; or, at least,
what we think is going to be big. Lacking divine powers (or a time machine)
to peek into the future, we had to rely
on our experience as long-time observers of the robotics landscape, covering the field on two of the world's top
robot blogs: IEEE Spectrum's Automaton and Hizook.com.
To make sure our forecasts aren't too
far off, we asked a group of roboticists
with different backgrounds for their predictions for 2012. This panel of experts
provided invaluable insight and, after
we tabulated everyone's suggestions, we
narrowed it down to the final 12. It was
not an easy task as there were so many
great ideas. (Thanks, panelists!)
In making our selection, we tried
to avoid the perennial trends-areas
such as environmental robotics (the
theme of this special issue), entertainment and toy robots, and others that
are always thriving with activity. We
focused on emerging areas and we followed the money-looking at where
funding is going. For example, the U.S.
National Robotics Initiative (NRI) has
put a lot of resources into robots that
can collaborate with people. The
Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency (DARPA), for its part, has
multiple programs that involve manipulation and bionic devices. Europe's
Framework Programme is funding the

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MRA.2012.2184209
Date of publication: 26 March 2012

1070-9932/12/$31.00ª2012 IEEE

development of cognitive systems and
robots that can assist people in everyday tasks. In Asia, the decade-long
funding of health-care robots for older
adults has intensified.
Again, we're not trying to present a
comprehensive survey of the state of
robotic research in 2012. We're hoping
that the trends described here are helpful as a heat map that highlights promising areas and technologies in robotics
and artificial intelligence. We know that
many readers may disagree with our
choices and that some might feel outraged at our selections; others will just
want to learn more. In either case, we
want to hear from you. Write us or go
to http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics2012
to see an expanded version of this article
and join the discussion.
As predictions go, only one thing
looks certain: robotics is going through
an amazing time, and things should
only get more exciting.

Science Foundation (NSF), and they represent a definitive step toward robots
migrating out of factories and academic
laboratories and into our everyday lives.
According to the NRI, co-robots must
be safe, relatively cheap, easy to use,
available everywhere, and able to interact
with humans to leverage their relative
strengths in the planning and performance of a task. "A lot of us are turning
our attention in that direction," said a
researcher from our panel of experts.
(No wonder so many U.S. roboticists
spent the latter portion of 2011 drafting
proposals!) The program's scope is
broad, but the key aspect of co-robots is
clear: they must interact with humans.
So expect to see a big jump in activity in
human-robot interaction in all its
myriad forms throughout 2012.
2) 3-D Sensing: The Kinect
Revolution Continues
Last year, a curious adornment started
appearing on the heads of many
robots. It was Kinect (Figure 2), the

1) Co-Robots: Robots as
Coworkers and
Coinhabitants
Typically, robots fall somewhere on a spectrum
between direct teleoperation and full autonomy.
Unfortunately, teleoperation can be cumbersome
and full autonomy is often
illusive. Somewhere in the
middle lies a compelling
tradeoff, where humans
and co-robots can collaborate to perform practical
tasks (Figure 1). Co-robots
are at the heart of the Figure 1. A study by Georgia Tech's Human Factors
and Aging Laboratory used the PR2 robot to interact
US$70-million NRI, spear- with older adults in the Aware Home. (Photo courtesy
headed by the U.S. National of Keith Bujak.)
MARCH 2012

IEEE ROBOTICS & AUTOMATION MAGAZINE

119

http://www.Hizook.com http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics2012

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