IEEE Solid-State Circuits Magazine - Fall 2015 - 54

1.E + 16

1.E + 11

1.E + 15

1.E + 10

Computations per kWh

Computations/s per Computer

1.E + 12

x2/1.5 Year
1.E + 09
1.E + 08
1.E + 07
1.E + 06

1.E + 14
x2/1.52 Year
1.E + 13
1.E + 12
1.E + 11
1.E + 10

1.E + 05

1.E + 09

1.E + 04
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1.E + 08
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Year

(a)

(b)

Figure 1: The trends for (a) computer performance and (b) computer power efficiency.

the resulting forecast may then be
based on wishful thinking. In this
article, I will try to clarify the basis of my forecast as much as possible. This will allow readers to revise the forecast in line with future
events, e.g., significant deviations
from expected trends, the introduction of new technology, and so forth.
Although such revisions will probably undermine my reputation as

a prophet, the revised forecast will
undoubtedly provide more accurate
predictions of what must be done
now, which is my main goal.

Performance Trends for ICT Systems
Wireline communications technology is generally a key component
of information and communications technology (ICT) systems. In
this section, I summarize future ICT

performance trends as they have a
direct bearing on the future of wireline communications technology.
First, we will look at trends in
computer performance. Koomey's
survey of computer performance and
power efficiency trends [1] is shown
in Figure 1. As the graph in Figure 1(a)
suggests, computer performance,
here defined as the number of computing operations performed in unit

100,000

200

100

Data Traffic (PB/Month)

Global IP Traffic (EB/s)

10,000
1,000
100
10
MINTS Low
MINTS High
Swanson-Gilder
Cisco Forecast
Extrapolation from
2007 MINTS

1
0.1
0.01

10
2010

2012

2014
2016
Time (Year)

2018

(a)

2020

0.001
1980

1990

2000
Year

2010

2020

(b)

Figure 2: The trend in global Internet traffic according to (a) the Cisco Visual Networking Index for 2010-2015 and 2013-2018 [2] and
(b) R.J. Essiambre [3].

54

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IEEE SOLID-STATE CIRCUITS MAGAZINE



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Solid-State Circuits Magazine - Fall 2015

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