IEEE Spectrum March, 2007 - 8

about the availability of nuclear, coal,
and hydroelectric power. The result is
per capita electric energy consumption
that is 55 percent higher than in New
York or California.
Despite Ontario's huge power appetite,
the government has been under pressure
to close the giant coal-fired electricitygenerating plants that have been supplying a quarter of its power. Climate
change may be an important enough
reason to stop burning coal, but the main
impetus for the policy has been evidence linking 660 premature deaths and
1100 emergency room visits each year to
the chemical stew issuing from smokestacks. Complicating any plan to switch
to low-carbon energy sources is the fact
that the province gets more than half of
its electric power from nuclear reactors
that are rapidly approaching the end of
their intended life spans and are increasingly in a state of disrepair.
In the face of these competing imperatives, the Ontario Power Authority, in
Toronto, set up specifically to manage
long-term electric energy planning, has
hatched a bold plan that makes hard
choices others have shied away from.
According to the energy strategy, called
the Integrated Power System Plan,
Ontario will cut coal "in the earliest practical time frame," with 2009 being the
target date. The province will rely heavily
on renewable energy, prop up its deteriorating nuclear fleet, and make much more
efficient use of its energy resources.
If all goes according to plan, new wind
farms will continue cropping up across
the province, helping take total electricity production from renewable sources to
15 700 megawatts [see charts, "Replacing
Coal in 20 Years"]. New hydroelectric
projects, such as a 10.4-kilometer tunnel
connecting the upper Niagara River with
the Sir Adam Beck generating facility at
Niagara Falls, will also play a role [see
photo, "Boring"].
At the same time, the plan will
encourage consumers to become energy
suppliers by requiring the Power
Authority to pay 11 Canadian cents for
every kilowatthour produced by smallscale (10 MW or less) wind, biomass, or
hydroelectric generators and 42 cents
per kilowatthour for solar energy. This
Standard Offer program, say observers,
will eliminate bureaucratic barriers that
had prevented farmers, rural landowners,
and businesses from selling energy to
the grid. They predict that 1000 MW of
previously untapped renewable energy
will come online in the next decade.

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Replacing Coal
in 20 Years
2005 TOTAL:

33 265 MW

Coal
6434
megawatts
Nuclear
14 000 Mw

Gas & Cogen
4976 Mw
renewables
7855 Mw

2025 TOTAL:

46 650 MW

Conservation
6300 Mw
Gas & Cogen
9400 Mw
Nuclear
14 000 Mw
renewables
15 700 Mw

Solid waste
gasification
250 Mw

0NtArIo MINIStry oF ENErGy

"Encouraging communities to develop
more renewable electricity will spur
the kind of innovation in the energy
sector that will help clean up our air,
create jobs, and contribute to our longterm prosperity," says Ontario Premier
Dalton McGuinty.
A controversial and problematic element in the plan's proposed energy mix
is its expectation that nuclear reactors will continue to generate upward of
14 000 MW in 2025-the same amount
of electricity that they put out today.
Not so long ago, seven of the province's
19 reactors had to be shut down because
of safety concerns. And among members of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, Canada
had the worst record of operating its reactors reliably from 1990 to 2002, according
to the Ontario Clean Air Alliance. Some
of Ontario's reactors are scheduled to be
decommissioned as early as 2014, but the
province has yet to decide whether they
will be replaced by newer versions of the
country's homegrown Candu reactor or by
reactors from foreign suppliers.
Either way, the province is pressing ahead. It pays roughly $5 billion
to refurbish two reactors that were
taken out of operation after an independent commission reported in 1997
that the province's nuclear plants

were being poorly managed.
The Ontario Clean Air Alliance,
among others, argues that the province
would get more bang for its buck by
converting one or more of its nowinactive coal-fired plants to natural gas.
The organization estimates that it would
cost roughly $75 million to convert the
Lakeview Generating Station's coal boilers
to burn natural gas. And the conversion
would yield more than 1000 MW, compared with the 515 MW derived from
the Pickering A nuclear reactor, which
will cost $1 billion to restart. What's
more, says the group, state-of-the-art
combined-cycle gas turbines are considered virtually immune to shutdowns,
while in the past, coal plants have had
to be reactivated when nuclear plants
proved unreliable.
The Ontario government also recognizes that it can never maintain an
adequate reserve margin between demand
and capacity unless it systematically
addresses the region's carefree energy use.
So it has set a goal of shaving 6300 MW
from projected peak demand by 2025
through conservation. Ontario has put
its money where its mouth is in this area,
funding initiatives such as smart metering, which allows consumers to shift
some of their energy use to off-peak periods and so pay less per kilowatthour.
A two-tiered rate system that the
government has set for the whole
province-5.8 cents per kilowatthour
for the first 600 kWh per month and
up to 6.7 cents per kilowatthour after
that-also encourages consumers to cut
back on energy use. A demand-response
program pays users who volunteer to
curtail their use during periods of peak
demand. The rationale is that what the
government will likely pay users to
conserve will be far less than what it
would pay for excess capacity on the
spot market.
Another concession to the importance of conservation has been a shift
in the metrics by which local utilities
are judged. Previously, their profits were
tied to electricity sales, and this was a
strong disincentive to introduce conservation programs. But new laws passed
in 2004 give utilities profit bonuses
equaling 5 percent of the total savings
their customers see on their energy bills.
Meanwhile, the province has permitted electricity rate increases totaling
$225 million to finance energy conservation plans. Ontario expects those plans
to save consumers a total of $1.6 billion
on their electric bills. -Willie D. JONeS

March 2007 | IEEE Spectrum | NA 13

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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Spectrum March, 2007