IEEE Spectrum April, 2008 - 41

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plan. This means, for example, that the
ideal approach could be to merely stock
up before a part ceases production to
cover the lifetime of the system. Usually
it's a combination of measures. The costs
of requalification testing, buying, and
storing spare parts and of performing the
design refresh itself are all included in the
tool's life-cycle analyses.
In 2003, we looked at a radar system in
the F-22 Raptor. Using 1998 data, we projected that the optimal time for a design
refresh would be in 2004. Northrop
Grumman then did an independent
analysis and drew the same conclusion.
This was a good proof of concept for our
predictive abilities: MOCA could predict
six years in advance what later turned
out to be the best course of action.
While it's nice to know ahead of time
what you'll need to do in the future, this
kind of analysis is also a money-saving
measure. A study done in 2005 on a
Motorola radio-frequency base station
communications system identified a design
refresh plan that would cost about onefourth of what it would cost to stock up on
each part that might go obsolete during the
lifetime of the base station. Motorola builds
and maintains more than 100 000 systems
for longer than 20 years.
Traditionally, the company addressed
obsolescence events as they occurred,
deciding on a case-by-case basis whether
to perform a design refresh or order a lifetime supply of parts. This system management technique was in essence a "death
by a thousand cuts" scenario, whereby
valuable resources were directed to fund
a continuous stream of independent decisions on how to manage parts. The company should have been looking instead
at each part in the context of the product
as a whole. The analysis concluded that
Motorola's best course of action would be
to perform one design refresh in 2011 and
buy sufficient parts to cover any obsolescence that occurs before then; doing no
refreshes (and instead making only lifetime buys) would cost $33 million more.
The key to a successful refresh schedule
is deciding on it well in advance, so that a
project's budget can include that expense
before irreplaceable parts become a serious business liability.
Obsolescence problems-whether
acknowledged or not-are a big part of
the costs associated with electronically
complex products in numerous sectors.
For long-lasting systems, obsolescence is
inevitable, but the spiraling costs that it
can trigger are not. o
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Spectrum April, 2008