IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 19
reflections
By--roBert--w.--lucky
--
wicked--
problems
trol, pretending that no effects
propagate beyond this box.
Perhaps all real
engineering problems are
in some sense wicked, but
many critical problems in
S
MGM/THE KOBAL COLLECTION
ome problems
have such complex
social, economic, or
organizational interactions
that they can't be solved fully.
They've become popularly
known as "wicked problems."
I'm not fond of these
problems, though I've seen
my share of them-they seem
to be ubiquitous in systemsengineering design. However,
I'm fascinated with the name.
It reminds me of "fuzzy logic,"
a brilliant and oxymoronic
phrase that juxtaposes an
adjective connoting warmth
and softness with a noun
that implies something cold
and mechanical. In "wicked
problem," an adjective
meaning evil or sinful,
usually assigned to humans,
is attached to an abstract,
inert noun. The name
suggests that the problem
itself is consciously malicious.
It knows that someone is out
there working on it, and it
is going to stop that person
from getting anywhere.
Wicked problems are
unsolvable not because they
are mathematically difficult
but because we can't define
them well enough to quantify
things. We don't encounter
such problems in our
engineering education, where
all the exercises have solution
paths, usually to precise
numerical answers. If only
the real world were always
so obliging! I am reminded
of Douglas Adams's famous
fictional supercomputer built
to answer the one question:
"What is the meaning of life?"
www.spectrum.ieee.org
This surely is the mother of all
wicked problems. As many
readers of The Hitchhiker's
Guide to the Galaxy know,
after long consideration
the computer returns the
answer "42." We sometimes
give similar oversimplified
solutions to problems
that are, well, wicked.
Invoking another
evocative name from modern
physics, wicked problems
demonstrate entanglement:
What we do here influences
something else way over there
in some mysterious way that
we don't fully understand.
When the ramifications of
our design extend beyond
our organizational, knowledge, technical, or authority
boundaries, we partition the
problem and draw a virtual
box around the part we con-
government may be especially
so. Consider airport security.
Every time I take off my
shoes and walk through
that strange freestanding
doorway, I think there must
be a better way. But we
lack the data needed for an
engineering solution. We can
try to calculate the costs and
benefits: We know the salary
and equipment expenses,
and we can measure the
probabilities of missed
detection and false alarms.
But the true cost of the system
should include the lost time,
uncertainty, and aggravation
of millions of airline
passengers, as well as the
lost revenue from would-be
passengers who are thus
discouraged from traveling,
and so forth. These costs
would have to be weighed
against the incalculable
cost of failing, even once, to
prevent an airline disaster.
To make matters worse, we
understand only poorly the
motivations and plans of
potential hijackers. And as
in almost all such problems,
there is an overriding
question-if we didn't spend
the money here, where
might it be better used?
On the other hand, what
would be the costs to society
if the public at large lost
confidence in air safety and
stopped flying altogether?
Problems in allocating
defense acquisition funds
are similarly wicked. For
example, what are the costs
and benefits of improving
the surveillance capabilities
of drone aircraft versus
investing in satellite
technology? Each promises
better intelligence, but what is
a pound of intelligence worth?
Isn't the ultimate objective
to win the war? But what
war did you have in mind?
And what did you mean by
"win"? The unanswerable
questions ascend into the
skies, far above your pay
grade, whatever it may be.
Because such problems
are wickedly unsolvable, the
practice is to set immutable
specifications for the constituent subsystems, leaving
little opportunity to trade
off cost, performance, and
scheduling parameters-
and leaving equally little
room for the analytical and
methodical approach that is
the essence of engineering.
Wicked problems will
never be solved in the conventional sense, but we
engineers should do our
best to bring this kind of
thought to any problem, be
it wicked or not.
o
july 2009 * IEEE SpEctrum * NA
27
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Spectrum July, 2009
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - Cover1
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - Cover2
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 1
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 2
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 3
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 4
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 5
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 6
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 7
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 8
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 9
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 10
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 11
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 12
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 13
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 14
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 15
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 16
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 17
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 18
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 19
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 20
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 21
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 22
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 23
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 24
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 25
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 26
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 27
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 28
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 29
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 30
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 31
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 32
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 33
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 34
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 35
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 36
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 37
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 38
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - Cover3
IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1217
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1117
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0917
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0817
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0717
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0617
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0517
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0417
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0317
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0217
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0117
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1216
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1116
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0916
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0816
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0716
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0616
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0516
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0416
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0316
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0216
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0116
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1215
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1115
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0915
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0815
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0715
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0615
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0515
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0415
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0315
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0215
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0115
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1214
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1114
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0914
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0814
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0714
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0614
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0514
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0414
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0314
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0214
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0114
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1213
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1113
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1013
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0913
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0813
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0713
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0613
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0513
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0413
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0313
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0213
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0113
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1212
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1112
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1012
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0912
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0812
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0712
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0612
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0512
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0412
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0312
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0212
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0112
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1211
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1111
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0911
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0811
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0711
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0611
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0511
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0411
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0311
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0211
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0111
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1210
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1110
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1010
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0910
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0810
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0710
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0610
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0510
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0410
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0310
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0210
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0110
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1209
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1109
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1009
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0909
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0709
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0609
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0509
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0409
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0309
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0209
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0109
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1208
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1108
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1008
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0908
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0808
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0708
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0608
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0508
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0408
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0308
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0208
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0108
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1207
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1107
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_1007
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0907
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0807
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0707
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0507
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0407
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0307
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0207
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/spectrum_na_0107
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com