IEEE Spectrum July, 2009 - 37

Germany's GreenEnergy Gap
Continued from page 44

lem, says Czisch, is the Big Four, whose
power plants face greater competition
with every megawatt of added trans‑
mission. "There must be an independent
state‑owned organization that can calcu‑
late what the grids should look like in the
future," he says.
The good news here is that pres‑
sure from European Union competi‑
tion authorities forced the Big Four to
put their transmission subsidiaries up
for sale. The bad news is that until these
assets are sold, those companies have
even less incentive to invest in better
transmission lines.

of projected peak power demand, even
though its wind turbines, photovoltaics,
and biomass‑fired power plants may con‑
stitute more than one‑third of installed
power capacity.
In the long run, a more robust grid
might be able to import enough renewable
energy to cover such shortfalls. German
analysts have been in the vanguard of
modeling the backup benefits of a trans‑
European supergrid, in which high‑ at the momeNt, however,
voltage DC (HVDC) transmission lines DENA has more pressing priorities.
would provide access to the renewable One of them is dealing with the spread‑
resources available at any given moment ing opposition in Germany to coal‑fired
across a broad area of Europe, the Middle power, which has caused a handful
East, and North Africa. Energy‑systems of projects to be stalled, blocked, or
consultant Gregor Czisch, for example, dropped. Last year DENA determined
has shown that Europe could meet all that cancellation of coal projects could
its power needs with an HVDC super‑ leave Germany without sufficient con‑
grid sharing northern Europe's offshore ventional energy capacity to back up its
wind energy, Scandinavia's hydropower, wind and solar power. This "power gap,"
and North African solar energy.
says DENA's CEO, Stephan Kohler, could
The European Union embraced that reach 12 GW by 2020.
concept last year. However, the idea of
The gap could even be wider, says
exchanging tens of gigawatts of electric Kohler, if energ y‑ef f iciency gains
power over thousands of kilometers slide. For example, the DENA's analy‑
looks positively hallucinatory given sis assumes that Germany will reduce
the state of transmission systems in power demand by 8 percent by 2020.
Germany today, where wind‑turbine "This is a realistic scenario," says Kohler.
installation has far outpaced expan‑ But then again, "last year power demand
sion of the grid.
increased 0.9 percent," he concedes.
At p r e s e nt , we a k c on ne c t ion s "That's not good."
between the regional grids controlled
Climate activists call Kohler's position
by the Big Four's transmission subsid‑ disingenuous. For one thing, the construc‑
iaries hinder the distribution of wind tion of new coal plants directly contradicts
power, heavily concentrated in north‑ the government's energy‑efficiency plans,
ern Germany, to the rest of the coun‑ because only a few facilities will capture
try. Already, transmission bottlenecks their waste heat for district heating. A cli‑
require grid operators to idle some wind mate scorecard of G8 countries prepared
farms in especially blustery conditions. last year by environmental consultancy
A 2005 study by DENA led to a consen‑ Ecofys concluded that the build‑out of
sus plan for upgrading the grid, desig‑ coal‑fired plants would "lock Germany
nating 850 km of high‑tension AC lines into a high level of carbon intensiveness
to be built to integrate wind power. But for the next 40 years."
a combination of tight credit and com‑
Two years ago Germany vowed that
munity opposition has stalled some of by 2020 it would cut greenhouse‑gas
these high‑priority projects, frustrating emissions by 40 percent from its 1990
renewable‑energy advocates. "The grid level, inspiring its European Union part‑
extensions should have started 10 years ners to agree to a combined reduction of
ago," says Hermann Albers, president of 20 to 30 percent if other countries, such
the German Wind Energy Association.
as the United States, contribute their
Czisch, meanwhile, complains that share. But Ecofys, confirming most other
Germany isn't facing the future and analyses, concluded that an increased
building the HVDC cables required to reliance on coal and an emissions‑heavy
provide a backup supply of renewable automotive sector meant that Germany
power from elsewhere. The root prob‑ was "lagging behind its aspirations."
46

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