IEEE Spectrum November, 2007 - 6

EVs WILL BE BACK: California governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger talks up his
states's zero-emission vehicles program.

credits earned by various ZEV technologies, a ratio that currently favors fuel cells
and offers relatively little help for hybrids.
"Changing that ratio has a lot of implications," says Daniel Sperling, director
of the University of California, Davis,
Institute of Transportation Studies-
a longtime observer of the ZEV program
and a member of CARB. Sperling says he
is especially concerned about the impact
on fuel-cell R&D if CARB reduces the
generous credits for fuel-cell vehicles.
"Automakers might abandon their fuelcell programs," he warns.
CalifoRnia legislatoRs created
the ZEV mandate back in 1990 after
General Motors vowed to mass-produce
its sporty EV1, a battery-powered two-

seater. The mandate consisted of just a
few sentences, stating that major manufacturers' California sales must include
at least 2 percent ZEVs in the model
years 1998 through 2000, 5 percent ZEVs
in 2001 and 2002, and 10 percent ZEVs in
2003 and subsequent years. Increasing
volume was supposed to drive improvements in the performance of electric
drivetrains and slash their cost.
In practice, however, battery development lagged. So CARB repeatedly
trimmed the quotas for ZEVs, allowing
manufacturers to build a larger number
of ultraclean combustion vehicles, which
the board oxymoronically termed partial
zero-emissions vehicles. These include
cars with advanced emissions controls,
natural gas-powered vehicles, and
gasoline-electric hybrids. Each category
qualifies for a different number of credits
toward the manufacturers' ZEV quotas.
More than half a million cars have
been sold under the ZEV program. And
the hybrid vehicles sweeping the market
today, the Toyota Prius in particular, have
their roots in carmakers' attempts to comply with the mandate. What is missing,
however, are the thousands of emissionsfree vehicles originally promised.
The regulation's downfall came in 2003
when the mandate, set to come into full
force, was instead derailed by a GM-led
lawsuit. The industry litigants argued that
CARB's incentives for gasoline-sipping
hybrids showed the ZEV mandate was
regulating fuel efficiency, a power granted
to the federal government. The board settled the suit by giving automakers a way
out. Instead of making thousands of battery EVs each, automakers could embark
on an industry-wide effort to commercialize fuel-cell vehicles, beginning with
the demonstration of just 250 fuel-cell
cars by 2008, with more to follow.
The Big 6-DaimlerChrysler, Ford,
GM, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota-lost
no time getting to work on fuel cells,
and they are on schedule to produce the
fuel-cell cars promised for next year.

from lEft: cArtESIA; toyotA; GENErAl motorS

California creates the zero-emissions vehicle
(ZEV) mandate, requiring high-volume carmakers to make ZEVs at least 2 percent of
their in-state sales from 1998, 5 percent of
sales from 2001, and 10 percent from 2003.

1990

1996

aCCeleRate foRwaRd from 2003
to today and it's a brave new world.
Hybrids are going mainstream, major
automakers are once again engineering
battery EVs, and start-ups such as Tesla
Motors and Phoenix are actually bringing them to market. Even GM, vilified
in the 2006 documentary Who Killed the
Electric Car? for crushing its EV1s, says
electric drive is the future. "We need to
do everything we can to rid ourselves
from complete dependence on oil as our
single source for automotive transportation," says Dave Barthmuss, GM's environmental spokesman in California.
The question, yet again, is whether
the ZEV mandate can help.
Automakers want more time, and
more credits, for fuel-cell technology. The
vehicles just aren't ready: according to an
independent review released by CARB
in April, fuel cells remain 20 times as
expensive as combustion engines and last
as little as three years, hydrogen storage tanks are inadequate, and hydrogen
fuel stations are nonexistent. Carmakers
propose delivering 2500 to 5000 fuelcell vehicles through 2014, one-fifth to
one-tenth of what they promised in the
2003 court settlement. And they want to
continue receiving extra ZEV credits for
every fuel-cell vehicle built. Right now
each hydrogen vehicle earns four times
as many credits as a battery EV, but that
advantage is slated to narrow after 2009.
Proponents of battery EVs, on the
other hand, want CARB to give them
parity with fuel-cell cars. Technology
is an issue for battery EV makers, too.
CARB's April review concluded that battery EVs comparable to today's internal
combustion vehicles in range and price

The California Air Resources
Board (CARB) eliminates
the 1998 and 2001 requirements. Automakers, in
CARB eases the
return, promise to field at
2003 mandate.
least 1800 ZEVs by 2000.

1997

The Road to
Zero Emissions
www.spectrum.ieee.org

But with the emphasis on fuel cells,
carmakers were free to give up on their
battery EVs, and all but Toyota did so. By
2003 the Big 6 had built about 4400 battery EVs under the ZEV program. Most
were recalled and crushed (in Honda's
case, shredded) after the court settlement.

1998

1999

CARB eases the
2003 mandate again.
GM and other carmakers sue to block
the mandate.

2000

2001

2002

CARB regulations inspire
the release of the first
hybrid vehicle, the
Toyota Prius, in Japan.

November 2007 | IEEE Spectrum | NA 11

http://www.spectrum.ieee.org

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Spectrum November, 2007