IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - June 2018 - 20

energy consumption until 2040, at
which point they will account for two
thirds of world total [12, p. 1]. In
contrast, more mature energy-con-
suming and slower growing OECD
countries will see total energy use
increase only 18% by 2040.
This is compounded by the fact
that energy consumption "per per-
son" is also predicted to rise as de-
veloping countries grow not only bigger
(more populous) but richer, as men-
tioned in the previous section. As mid-
dle-income groups in these countries
grow larger, demands for improved
standards of living, such as for bet-
ter housing and sanitation, increase.
As demands for housing, appliances,
and transportation increase, ener-
gy capacity must also increase to
produce food, infrastructure, goods,
and services for both domestic and
foreign markets, leading to higher per
capita energy consumption. Whereas
energy use per capita will remain
flat in OECD countries over the next
30 years, EIA forecasts more than
half the increase in global energy con-
sumption will come from non-OECD
countries across Asia, the Middle
East, Africa, and Latin America in the
same time period, even accounting
for efficiency gains [12, p. 8].
We are seeing an increased focus
on the need for electricity services
in places where it has not been as
major a human development focus
before. Infrastructure has moved
from being a "simple precondition
for production and consumption to
being at the very core of these activi-
ties" [13, p. 2]. This energy "pivot" to
the South has given rise to a surge
in large-scale energy infrastructure
projects to facilitate industrial pro-
ductivity and consumption [14].

Emerging Role of the
Global South in Climate
Change Mitigation
At the same time that energy demand
grows sharply in the global south,

20

there is also currently an increased
global awareness of climate change
and an international commitment to
reducing emissions to limit tempera-
ture to under a 2 °C increase over
pre-industrial levels. This was recent-
ly affirmed as the Paris Agreement
was ratified by over 140 countries
[15]. In the past, world leaders have
argued that rich, industrialized
countries created the global warm-
ing problem with their industrial
emissions and should bear the larg-
er brunt of emissions reduction -
this has been a well-known sticking
point in past climate negotiations
[16], [17].
But climate experts and now even
officials from developing nations are
saying "there is no way that global
warming can be kept below the inter-
national 2 °C goal without dramatic
limits in future emissions from the
developing nations [because] under
a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario,
most emission growth will come
from the anticipated increase in fos-
sil fuel use by developing nations"
[18]. Experts find that approximately
two-thirds of avoided emissions will
have to come from the developing
world to meet the collective goal,
which means that new targets such
as the "High Ambition Coalition"
target of 1.5 °C, which while mak-
ing very sound climate sense, poses
particular challenges for developing
nations [18].
Given the threat of global warm-
ing and the yet essential nature of
electricity to development, low-emis-
sion energy solutions that supply
massive amounts of power are in
high demand [19]. This brings us to
the hydro-electric power dam, our
large energy infrastructure technol-
ogy of focus.

always been on the international
and national development agenda
for modernization. Such projects
were generally financed by interna-
tional development cooperation
agencies and multilateral develop-
ment banks (MDBs). But the World
Bank eventually came under strong
fire for its lack of attention to the
negative impacts of many of these
projects, particularly regarding
population displacement. The late
1990s were "characterized by esca-
lating debates over large dams" [20]
and fierce discussions over a num-
ber of high profile cases such as
India's controversial Sardar Sar-
ovar Dam.
Furthermore, cost overruns are
ty pical and well-documented in hy -
dropower finance. A recent Oxford
study analyzed a sample of large
dams built between 1934 and 2007
and found that three of every four
dams suffer from cost overruns,
one of every two dams had costs
that exceeded benefits, and that the
actual cost of dams is on average
double their estimated costs [21].
Mounting international pressure
arose against dams during this peri-
od. The World Bank was eventually
forced to pull out of the Sardar Sar-
ovar project after an independent
review in 1993 [22]. The participation
of MDBs in large-scale dam projects
quickly subsided. At the World Bank
alone investments in hydropower
declined by 90% between 1992 and
2002 [23]. Consequently, there was
a noted lull in international mega-
dam funding during the 1990s.
Yet at the same time other events
were brewing. In the aftermath of the
1997 Asian Financial Crisis, several
Southern countries began develop-
ing new monetary arrangements for
lending. Added to the South's grow-
ing financial reserves coming out
of the 2009 Global Financial Crisis,
this has transformed global financi-
al architecture, such that the South

Southern Investors and New
Finance for Development Projects
Historically speaking, dams and
hydroelectric infrastructure have
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine

∕

JUNE 2018



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