IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - June 2019 - 28

OPINION

Elena Psyllou

riverless cars are
expected to have
the advantage of lifting requirements for
driver's license ownership and fitness to drive. As such
they may offer improved accessibility and mobility for those currently
unable to drive, e.g., the elderly and
disabled [1], [2]. Despite the postulated benefits, the role of driverless
cars in future transport systems
remains debatable, in terms of their
potential to replace other transport
modes or have a novel, unique, and
complementary functionality.
Wiseman in his article "Driverless
Cars will Make Passenger Rails Obsolete," (this issue, p. 22), makes a
number of very bold statements
concerning the future of transport
systems. In particular, he suggests
that driverless vehicles will soon
replace railway systems as well
as, presumably, other public transport. Following this hypothesis, he
suggests that driverless vehicles
should and can be facilitated through
expanding car-friendly infrastructure. Yet those working in the field of
transport systems, whether in modeling, policy, engineering, or economics, are well aware of such transport
systems' notoriety in not following
the trajectories of any long-term
predictions, whether utopian or dystopian. In particular, consider a pair
of past bold conjectures related to
transport systems:

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MTS.2019.2913068
Date of publication: 30 May 2019

Jacek Pawlak

Congestion, Safety,
Economic, and
Environmental
Challenges of Vehicle
Automation in
Transport Systems
"In 50 years, every street in
London will be buried under
nine feet of manure" (The
Times, 1984, quoted in [3]).

statements above. Thus, we propose
to treat Wiseman's article as a starting point for a more critical discussion of the role of driverless cars
in relation to rail, or indeed other
modes of transport, as those have to
be considered in any such deliberations. We cannot offer, unfortunately,
an exhaustive review and exposition
of what is already a very substantial
research field. Instead, we highlight
some of the specific discourse and
arguments that relate to the conjectures made by Wiseman, and allow
the reader to obtain a more complete perspective on the issues.

"Telework and telecommuting
are likely to increase at an
accelerating pace over the
next decade" (Nills, 1985,
quoted in [4]).
The commonality between those
two statements is their boldness and
incorrectness, even though they represent two extreme stances on the
role of technological progress in
transport systems: ignorance and
over-optimism. Rather than debate
the nature and causes of the "Great
horse manure crisis of 1894" (see
[5]), we observe that with his perspective, Wiseman might be falling
into the same trap as authors of the
IEEE TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY MAGAZINE

"Driveless Cars Will Make
Passenger Rails Obsolete"
Wiseman's article concludes that:
"...a means of transportation
that takes many people from
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JUNE 2019

IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - June 2019

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