IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - September 2021 - 31

Opinion
The Fourth Industrial Revolution Will Not
Bring the Future We Want
Chris J. Barton
School for the Future of Innovation in Society,
Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281 USA
 The FourTh IndusTrIal Revolution (4IR) is
a vision of a future in which emerging technologies
change " the very essence of our human experience "
[1]. It was initially introduced in a book of the same
name authored by the World Economic Forum's
(WEF) founder Klaus Schwab and launched at the
WEF's 2016 Davos conference. The idea has since
been used to promote a wide range of emerging
technologies and has informed discussion in many
forums, including within IEEE publications.
4IR denotes progress and novelty without committing
to specifics. The core idea is that " the marriage of
physical and digital technologies... [and] their interaction
across the physical, digital, and biological
domains " [2, p. 2] will result in technology becoming
increasingly and inseparably entangled with
the human experience. Importantly, it claims that
these technologies " will revolutionize everything,
making the overused and often ill-used adage 'this
time is different' apt " [3, p. 9]. The allegation that
" this time is different " -that we are experiencing a
revolution in tech rather than simply evolution-is at
the heart of 4IR's narrative. It enables visions of what
the future could be to be presented instead as visions
of what the future will be. It presents 4IR technologies
as inevitable and therefore worthy of attention
and investment.
We should not uncritically parrot the rhetoric of
4IR. Its core claim-that we are experiencing an
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MTS.2021.3101930
Date of current version: 2 September 2021.
September 2021
abrupt, inevitable, and all-encompassing technological
revolution-is tautological and ahistorical. 4IR
purports to simply be describing observable technological
change, but portraying certain technologies
as inevitable only serves to close off critique. 4IR
makes useful marketing copy, but if manifested, it
promises to amplify global inequalities and disempower
those not represented at Davos.
The promise of 4IR is overblown and its perils are
underappreciated. There are compelling reasons to
reject-and even actively oppose-the 4IR narrative.
If we accept the premise that this time is actually
different-that we are experiencing a revolutionary
break with the past-then technologies which thrive
in this new world must therefore be novel, innovative,
and revolutionary. The advancement of these
self-described revolutionary technologies is then
used by 4IR boosters as evidence that things are now
different. The logic is circular and fully dependent
on accepting the initial premise. This flawed logic
then leads to a dangerous conclusion: in an inevitable
future shaped by overwhelming technologies,
society must change itself in order to satisfy the
needs of 4IR tech.
To take one of many possible examples, Schwab
sees ride-sharing as part of the 4IR future and celebrates
that it " provides mobility services without the
need to own a vehicle " [3, p. 58]. Note that this service
is also offered by older technologies like public transit
and walking. But when ride-sharing is processed
through the narrative of 4IR, it emerges as novel and
revolutionary; it becomes disconnected from the rich
0278-0097/21©2021 IEEE
31
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - September 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - September 2021
