IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - March 2017 - 75

The authors found that different methods of scenario
Preparation and
Using
Scenario Building
Scoping the
planning can be categorized
the Scenario
Scenario
in three main phases [15]:
* Mid-Term
■ Process preparation and
* Ex-Post Evaluation
* Ex-Ante Evaluation
Evaluation
scoping.
■ Scena r io building and
refining.
Figure 2. Different types of evaluation and respective scenario planning process.
■ Using the scenarios and identifying potential impacts.
In the NINI document and the mentioned paper [43]
As we need to evaluate each phase of scenario planthe authors have used a deductive method to formulate
ning, we will explain the types of evaluation in detail,
the scenarios. Three uncertainties of the scenarios are
i.e., the ex-ante evaluation, mid-term evaluation, and exas follows:
post evaluation (Figure 2).
■ Technology strategy.
In ex-ante evaluation, we evaluate whether scenario
■ Technology advantage.
planning is useful for the problem or not (Figure 4). For
■ Public reaction.
example, in the mentioned problem if the uncertainty
and the complexity is high, then scenario planning
would be appropriate [15], [16].
Mid-term evaluation is a systematic and continuous
activity [17] and includes consideration of criteria during
the development of the scenarios in the second phase
(i.e., building scenario and refining). These criteria are
extracted from the various sources as listed in Table 3.
In general, these criteria try to direct the scenarios
toward the considered perspective for the societal impacts.
Most scenario outputs and impacts will be revealed
after scenario development. The task of ex-post evaluation is to determine impacts that would be revealed
Eight alternative scenarios across these three uncertainafter scenario development. Such an evaluation is being
ties occur and are shown in Table 4. Moreover, four probadone by the observable variable indicators.
ble scenarios are Gold Mine, Left Train, Gambler, Mirage.
According to Scearce and Fulton [42], the key steps
Gold Mine is the most desirable scenario. The vision stateto this stage are:
■ Identify the important predetermined elements and
ment is for wealth creation and welfare of the people.
uncertainties of the future.
■ Monitor the evolution of the important predeterSocietal Implications in the Desirable
Scenario (Gold Mine)
mined elements and uncertainties.
■ Record whatever is obtained by monitoring and
In the "Gold Mine" scenario, Iran chooses leadership as
scanning.
its technology strategy in nanotechnology. In this scenarIn order to study the ex-post societal impacts of nanio, as Iran joins the World Trade Organization (WTO),
otechnology development, in this research we chose the
sanctions will be automatically repealed according to the
Fulton method [42] because the scenarios have been
mechanisms of that organization. Joining the WTO forces
developed in the key uncertainties method, and this
Iran to observe advanced legal standards such as
method focuses on assessing key uncertainties and
intellectual property rights. The process of improving
their relevant factors. In the following section, we will
economic and educational infrastructure for the developpresent an ex-post assessment of the scenarios of sociment of nanotechnology continues. Comprehensive eduetal impacts of Iranian nanotechnology after the pascation of human resources completes the required chain
sage of its time horizon.
for the development of this technology from research
phase to the market. Nanotechnology products have a
Scenarios of Societal Implications
high level of efficiency. Various applications have wonderof Nanotechnology in Iran
ful results in hygiene, food, energy, and the environment.
In previous studies, scenarios of the societal impacts of nanNanotechnology increases productivity in different parts
otechnology in NINI has been shown in a three-dimensional
of Iran's economy. Iranian industries suffering from
model and published by Ghazinoory and Heidary [43].
declining technologies are renewed by nanotechnology.

Joining the WTO forces Iran to
observe advanced legal standards
such as intellectual property rights.

march 2017

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