IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - March 2017 - 77

and create a high level of public convenience. Nanotechnology advantages help the economy reach sustainable
development. Other probable scenarios have been narrated by Ghazinoory and Heidary [43].

Ex-Post Evaluation of Nanotechnology
Societal Impacts
An evaluation is needed to become informed about the
positive, negative, intentional, and unintentional impacts
of the societal scenarios. Moreover, it is important to
know at what point in time the evaluation is done.
Depending on the answer, an ex-ante, mid-term, or expost evaluation needs to be implemented (Figure 2).
Since the time horizon is over, we now have an expost evaluation for scenarios of societal impacts of
the NINI document approved in 2004. We have used
the Scearce and Fulton method [42] in ex-post evaluation. We want to determine the position in the scenario matrix in terms of the impacts of nanotechnology
on Iranian society. This process also provides the
opportunity to use the ex-post evaluation to determine
whether the previous evaluations have been sufficient.
Determining the position of Iran in Table 4 requires
determining Iran's position in the spectrum of uncertainties. We need to establish our direction and orientation
after 10 years from the scenario development. Using the
scenario, we need to find Iran's position in the spectrum
of the first uncertainty - "technology advantages"-second uncertainty - "public reaction" - and the third -
"technology strategy."
The sampling method used in this research is the
judgment (purposive non-probability) sampling method.
In this sampling method, subjects are selected as sample subjects who are in the best position to provide
needed information. The sample for this research

includes a group of experts consisting of academic professors, who are familiar with technology management
in general and the societal impacts of the nanotechnology in particular; policy makers, who work as the members of the Special Committee of Nanotechnology
Development and Technological Services Corridor; and
industrial experts - managing directors of companies
that are active in the field of nanotechnology and their
associate agents.

An evaluation of the societal
scenarios is needed to become
informed about the positive, negative,
intentional, and unintentional impacts
of nanotechnology.

Accordingly, 20 individuals were selected and a questionnaire was distributed to them through Google docs.
The questionnaire first explained the three-fold uncertainty of the societal impact of nanotechnology development in brief, after which the respondents were asked
to determine on a three-point scale how the mentioned
scenario has been fulfilled after ten years of implementation with regard to the societal impacts of nanotechnology development. Moreover, the respondents were
asked to provide data-facts and figures. The collected
results and their analysis are shown in Table 5.

TABLE 4. Eight Alternative Scenarios Across Three Uncertainties.
Alternative
scenarios

Uncertainty 1:
Technology strategy

Uncertainty 2:
Public reaction

Uncertainty 3:
Technology advantage

Probable
scenarios

Desirable
scenario

Gold mine

Leadership

High

■

Computer in cave

Leadership

Backlash

High

Village

Follows hip

Backlash

High

Left train

Follow ship

High

■

Gambler

Leadership

Backlash

Low

■

Bankrupt

Leadership

Low

mirage

Follow ship

Backlash

Low

Conservative

Follow ship

Low

march 2017

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IEEE Technology and Society Magazine

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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - March 2017