IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - March 2017 - 79

Mine, for the upcoming decade. Now, time having
passed, experts have identified that Iran is moving
towards the bankrupt scenario. Thus we should use the
strategies applicable to this scenario.

Reviewing the Impacts in the Bankrupt
Scenario (the Occurring Scenario)
In this position, Iran chooses leadership as its technology strategy in nanotechnology and invests heavily in
education and infrastructure for technology R&D.
Advances in research indicate that many predicted
applications for nanotechnology products have not
been practical and promises have been exaggerated.
Sanctions will be repealed as Iran joins the WTO. Joining the WTO forces Iran to observe advanced legal
standards such as intellectual property rights. But the
inattention of government and poor management of
technology do not permit the economic and educational infrastructure that would be required for the successful development of nanotechnology. On the other hand,
high efficiency, ease of use, and the low price of nanotechnology products cause a high level of demand and
an excellent market for the products. Nano-based products become more and more commonplace and create
high levels of public convenience.

Harnessing Benefits of Nanotechnology
Development
Technologies that have the potential to change the
world will be accompanied by risks and side effects
(from the technology side as well as from the application side). A three-tiered approach to prospective technology assessment and design was developed as a
rational and practical way of dealing with the tremendous lack of knowledge at early stages of innovation.
Technology characterization and eco-profiles have
proven to be practical evaluation approaches, even for
technologies, products, and processes that are still
under development. Technology characterization (hazard characterization) provides knowledge and orientation even when applications and exposures are lacking
(exposure potential), and new effects models are likely
(hazard potential). This approach can reveal opportunities and hazards associated with selected nanotechnologies (short term: nanoparticles, and long term:
nano-systems, are capable of self-organization and
self-replication).
Leitbild-oriented design will play an important role in
further development towards a sustainable economy.
Approaches to a commensurate shaping of the processes - as described here and elsewhere - must be
seriously considered. The potential benefits of nanotechnologies will not simply fall into our laps, but must be pursued with deliberation and effort.
march 2017

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Technology characterization and ecoprofiles have proven to be practical
evaluation approaches, even for
technologies, products, and processes
that are still under development.

One of the useful methods in vision statement or
Leitbilder is the scenario development. In order to evaluate scenario planning, we have considered the evaluation in different stages (Figure 2).
In our case study, since the scenarios were developed, we had to carry out an ex-post evaluation.
Thus we evaluated the uncertainties of a scenario
matrix. We know the current situation of nanotechnology development is moving toward a bankrupt
scenario. We observed that we are getting further
away from the best case scenario (i.e., Gold Mine).
However strategies were developed based on the
Gold Mine scenario. Therefore we can conclude that
it is necessary to modify strategies in accordance
with the desired scenario.

Author Information
Sepehr Ghazinoory is Full Professor of Science and
Technology Policy, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, and
Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Science & Technology
Policy (www.jstp.ir).
Fatemeh Saghafi is Assistant Professor, Faculty of
New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran,
Iran.
Sahar Kousari is a Ph.D. student in the Faculty of New
Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Iran.
Email: saharkosarion@yahoo.com.

References

[1] E. Von Weizsa¨cker, A.B. Lovins, and L.H. Lovins, Factor Four:
Doubling Wealth, Halving Resource Use. London, U.K.: Earthscan,
1997.
[2] Grunwald A. Technikfolgenabscha¨tzung e eine Einfu¨hrung.
[Technology assessment e an introduction]. Berlin: Edition Sigma;
2002 [in German].
[3] Decker M, Ladikas M. Bridges between science, society and
policy. Technology assessment e methods and impacts. Berlin/
Heidelberg/New York: Springer; 2004.
[4] Bechmann, G., Decker, M., Fiedeler, U., & Krings, B. J. (2006).
Technology assessment in a complex world. International Journal
of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 3(1), 6-27.
[5] SETAC Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemisty. A
technical framework for life cycle assessment. Washington, DC;
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