IEEE Technology and Society Magazine - Summer 2013 - 12
Special Section
intRoDUction
linDSaY RoBeRtSon
anD Katina MicHael
Risk, Complexity and Sustainability
T
his special section is dedicated to risk as
understood within our society, in which
we depend upon increasingly complex and
interconnected technologies for even our
most basic needs- water, food, shelter, electricity, gas,
sewage, communications, and banking.
Natural disasters and their impact on vital services has been a research area that has flourished,
especially since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that
claimed hundreds of thousands of lives in South Asia.
This research has yielded a plethora of strategies for
addressing short-term and geographically defined
disasters.While such disaster preparedness systems are
vital to minimize the loss of life during a natural disaster, we turn to consider what some would call of even
greater value to society at large. That is, how to reduce
the vulnerability of everyday citizens by understanding better how their essential supply lines interconnect, which supply chains are intertwined and, how
this might impact the individual, regardless of whether
they are living in a crowded city or remote village.
By developing a clear understanding of what makes
us all vulnerable in our particular context, we can be
better prepared to reduce these exposures, and build
a more resilient society in the process. As one example, "survival" literature suggests that one of the most
problematic repercussions of a serious "incident" is
disruption to food supply.Y et during the Christchurch
Earthquake in New Zealand in February 2011, food
supply was much less problematic than sewage disposal. In another example, residents of a rural town
threatened by earthquake were unconcerned at the
possible disruption of landline phone services - but
were disturbed to learn that ATM and banking communications, cell-phone data, emergency calls (as
well as landline phone services) were all carried on a
single fiber-optic link!
Classically, we have built models that calculate
the probability of an event occurring and measure its
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MTS.2013.2265145
Date of publication: 5 June 2013
theoretical impact if the event does indeed occur - but
these models are limited. They might reveal to us a
ranking of probable incidence, and the estimated loss
in dollar figures as a result, but they do not provide
insight into how interdependencies in various supply
chains play out during an incident (whether caused by
natural or human-made mischief).
For instance, we know that in a simplistic scenario,
if water supply is disrupted, then our electricity system will not operate effectively, and if our electricity
system does not work then all additional services that
require power, such as the crucial ATM network also
does not work, and people are left without the ability
to purchase fuel, food, etc. The financial sector will
certainly consider the effect of ATM systems failure,
but (as with most supply chain managers) their assessments of brand damage and corporate losses are likely
to receive higher weighting than end-user problems.
A very strong argument exists that we need to be
building vulnerability models so that we can at least
know where the weakest points in an operational community (of individuals) lie. By identifying the weakest
points, we can overcome them with strategies well in
advance of a major incident. This does not mean that
we can eradicate vulnerability completely from our
communities, but we can minimize the level of exposure - both to anticipated and unanticipated threats.
Technology is a double edged sword - on the one
hand it offers advanced, efficient, and economical services, but on the other it exposes us to both technological and also ethical risks. Therefore a crucial role
exists for engineering ethics and social responsibility
in higher education curricula. Additionally, we need
better mechanisms with which to comprehend the
full dimensions of risk and exposure - and a desire
to move towards a future that offers real (individual)
people both security and service.
This special section addresses some of these issues,
including fundamental definitions of technique vs.
technology, complex systems of systems, and planning for future technologies and policy repercussions
well in advance.
Lindsay Robertson is a professional engineer for a private consulting company in Wellington, New Zealand.
Katina Michael is an associate professor in the School of Information Systems and Technology at the University of
Wollongong.
12
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IEEE TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY MAGAZINE
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SuMMEr 2013
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