i3 - May/June 2017 - 28
D
DISRUPT MARKETS,
isruptions are very difficult to predict, even for experts.
Steve Jobs, who shepherded some of the most famously
disruptive products to market, was surprisingly dismissive of the
Amazon Kindle, for a rather specious reason. "It doesn't matter
how good or bad the product is," he told The New York Times in
2008, "Forty percent of the people in the U.S. read one book or
less last year. The whole conception is flawed at the top because
people don't read anymore."
Apparently the other 60 percent reads more than enough to
make up for the slackers. Eight months after Jobs' comment, the
Times reported that analysts had doubled their forecasts for
Kindle sales - and this was long before the more robust Kindle
28
MAY/JUNE 2017
Fire came along. Jobs also seemed to have missed where the real
disruption would occur: in the publishing industry. By promoting
the eBook format, Amazon usurped the gatekeepers and made it
cheap and easy for virtually anyone to self-publish - through
Amazon's online bookstore, of course. It's been a rocky road, with
pitched legal battles over eBook pricing, but there's no questioning
the Kindle's disruptive influence.
Countless articles, white papers and books have delved into the
phenomenon of disruption, trying to divine the secrets. That
research is worth reviewing, but it's also important to embrace the
ambiguity. Sometimes business is more art than science; instincts,
timing and style still count for a lot, even in the data era. Consider
I T I S I N N O VAT I O N
i3 - May/June 2017
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