i3 - September/October 2020 - 35

By Kyle Wandel

Business

BY T H E N U M B E RS

The Smartphone Outlook
Flexible Smartphones
he smartphone industry is once again in a transitional
Another interesting development in the
phase, as mobile 5G capabilities and interest for exciting
smartphone industry is the rise of foldnew technologies, such as foldable displays, are expanding. able display phones. These phones are
This transition could not have come at a better time according to
built with a flexible or foldable screen
CTA's 22nd Annual Consumer Technology Ownership and Market that allows the user to transition from a
Potential Study - smartphones now have a household penetration tablet size device to a phone size device.
CTA estimates that only 50,000 units
rate of 93%. 5G and foldable displays have the potential to fuel
future sales, but handset manufacturers face significant challenges. were sold in 2019, but over 600,000 are

Smartphone manufacturers, who were
already struggling with longer phone
replacement cycles, now face the harsh
realities of supply chain disruptions and
macroeconomic implications of the
COVID-19 pandemic. Retail store closings,
a pullback in consumer spending and
uncertainty about the future have
coalesced, resulting in a slowdown in unit
sales. In January 2020, CTA had estimated
smartphone sales would reach 165 million
units in 2020, a 2% increase from 2019.
However, as a result of the downward
pressures from COVID-19, CTA's July
2020 U.S. Consumer Technology OneYear Industry Forecast estimates that
smartphone unit sales will fall to 152
million units, a 6% decline from 2019.
CTA estimates that shipment revenues
for smartphones will reach $71 billion, a
6% decrease from 2019.

Antonio Gil/Alamy

The 5G Rollout

5G is still a relatively new technology and
is only located in select areas of major cities in the U.S. Even within these cities,
much of that 5G network is considered
sub-6 GHz (spectrum frequency below 6
GHz) which offers only slightly faster
download speeds than the current mobile
standard long-term evolution (LTE) networks. The high-speed future of 5G relies
on the growth of mmWave (frequency
above 24GHz) which offers faster digital
speeds over shorter distances and typically is used in urban areas.
Despite the current technological challenges, wireless service providers
C TA . t e c h / i 3

i3_0920_35_Business_ByTheNumbers.indd 35

expected to ship in 2020, which is a
1100% year-over-year increase. There
continue to expand their 5G coverage.
are still some quirks to work out with
5G-capable phones are seeing a drathis new technology, as manufacturers
matic shift in 2020 as
continue to improve upon
more big brands are
this new form factor and
announcing their 5G
experiment with various
phones. CTA expects unit
folding mechanisms and
CTA expects unit
shipments for 5G handsets
screen sizes.
shipments for 5G
to reach almost 15 million
Because of the high
handsets to reach
almost 15 million
units this year, which is an
household penetration rate
units this year,
800% increase from 2019.
and longer replacement
which is an 800%
As manufacturers diversify
cycles, the switch from
increase from 2019.
their 5G handset offerings
LTE to 5G-capable phones
to reach more consumers,
and newer technologies
5G uptake will increase
such as foldable screens
dramatically over the next
will benefit the smarttwo years. The outlook of
phone industry. CTA projCTA projects that
5G smartphones is bright,
ects that the smartphone
over 76% of all
as CTA projects that over
industry will bounce back
smartphone sales
76% of all smartphone
in a big way, generating
in 2022 will have 5G
capabilities.
sales in 2022 will have
over $78 billion in ship5G capabilities.
ment revenues in 2021. ■

15 MILLION

76%

1100%

CTA estimates that
only 50,000 units
were sold in 2019,
but over 600,000
are expected to ship
in 2020, which is a
1100% year-overyear increase.

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020

9/1/20 10:37 AM

https://shop.cta.tech/products/22nd-annual-u-s-consumer-technology-ownership-and-market-potential-study https://shop.cta.tech/products/22nd-annual-u-s-consumer-technology-ownership-and-market-potential-study https://www.cta.tech/Resources/Newsroom/Media-Releases/2020/July/U-S-Tech-Industry-Revenue-to-Decline-2-2-in-2020-A https://www.cta.tech/Resources/Newsroom/Media-Releases/2020/July/U-S-Tech-Industry-Revenue-to-Decline-2-2-in-2020-A https://www.cta.tech/Resources/Newsroom/Media-Releases/2020/July/U-S-Tech-Industry-Revenue-to-Decline-2-2-in-2020-A http://cta.tech/i3

i3 - September/October 2020

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