AAIA Factbook 2010 - (Page 16)

Channel foreCasT MoDel This model is the outgrowth of an earlier project started some years ago by the AAIA Market Research Committee. It has since evolved into a multi-association project which is funded by AAIA, MEMA and SEMA. The project consultant is IHS Global Insight www.ihsglobalinsight.com, who is in its second year of a three-year contract. For more than 40 years, IHS Global Insight has been considered a leader in economic and financial analysis, forecasting, and market intelligence. The Channel Forecast Model uses the 1997 and 2002 Economic Census data to determine the present (nominal) dollar value of sales at end user prices for each of the automotive aftermarket’s channels of distribution and totals the channels to provide a complete market overview. The automotive aftermarket, as it is defined for this project, consists of all non-warranty, retail sales of parts, accessories and services for light vehicles. Included are retail sales of paint, tools and equipment for repairs (including collision repair), trim and interior products, vehicle restorations, replacement glass and tires. The automotive segment of the aftermarket includes the replacement parts, accessories, chemicals, tires and nonwarranty service for passenger cars and light trucks. The model accounts for the potential double-counting of revenue by including only those sales that are listed as made to the general public. Using 1997 and 2002 Economic Census data as a base, the model: • Estimates values of Economic Census results for those years that are not covered by the report, • Forecast out, through 2010, the values of the census data. Included in the estimated and forecasted values referenced above are a set of 42 motor vehicle aftermarket’s channels of distribution agreed upon for use as the set of NAICS subcategories. These 42 channels are all the categories from the Census that displayed automotive sales. The four main sources of data used as inputs in the model are (1) U.S. Economic Census data, (2) R. L. Polk & Co., (3) IMR Inc. and (4) IHS Global Insight. Baseline data for this model are the 1997 and 2002 Economic Census data. From this baseline data, the remaining three sources are used as drivers for the model. The Census survey provides information on sales by Product Line and NAICS industry, all of which are released every five years. Due to the volume of information collected, it takes the Census Bureau approximately four years to release the data following the reporting year. As a result of this, AAIA just last year added the 2002 Economic Census data to the Channel Forecast Model. During the incorporation of the new census data, the model was recalibrated, the history from 2002 through 2007 was recast, and an updated forecast through 2010 was created. IMR Inc. provides data from their Continuing Consumer Auto Maintenance Survey, which provides replacement rate data broken out by 27 ML/RL (product codes) for 10 types of vehicles, by age. This survey is conducted at the end of each quarter and includes 100,000 participants and approximately 187,000 vehicles, annually. R. L. Polk provides AAIA with vehicle registration (parc data) each year. This data is lagged by one year, but is not a result of sampling. The data is broken into 10 vehicle classes and vintage. IHS Global Insight’s data is a combination of proprietary data and macroeconomic data that pertains to the automotive aftermarket industry and includes unit sales of cars and light trucks, a variety of CPI indices, retail sales for different automotive related channels, etc. This data is used as the initial demand driver within the model. 16 2 0 1 0 d i g i t a l a f t e r ma rk et f a ctb o o k c op y r i g h t © 2 0 0 9 a uto mo ti ve a f terma rk et i ndustry associat ion http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AAIA Factbook 2010

AAIA Factbook 2010
Contents
Economic and Financial Indicators
Key Economic Indicators
Aftermarket Employment
Technician Employment and Wages
Aftermarket Mergers and Acquisitions
Financial Profiles of Selected Aftermarket Companies
U S Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Channel Forecast Model
Census Review and Forecast Assumptions
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Size of the Automotive Aftermarket
Aftermarket Sales by Distribution Channel
Aftermarket Service and Retail Channels
Program Distribution Summary
Automotive Aftermarket
Consumer Profile
Sales of Replacement Tires
Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Accessories
Aftermarket Accessories
Chemicals and Fluids
Automotive Chemicals and Fluids
Aftermarket Segments
Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Aftermarket
Paint, Body and Equipment Aftermarket
Tool and Equipment Aftermarket
Vehicle Sales, Usage and Registrations
U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales
Top 10 Light Vehicle Sales
U.S. Motor Vehicle Population
Hybrid Vehicles
Vehicle Operating Costs
Gasoline Affordability and Vehicle Miles Traveled
State Summary Statistics
State Summary Statistics
Global Aftermarket
Global Economic and Automotive Data
Global Vehicle Registrations
Canadian Aftermarket
Mexican Aftermarket
Chinese Aftermarket
Glossary and Reference
Glossary of Aftermarket Terms
NAICS Definitions
Aftermarket Data Resources
Aftermarket Data Resources
AAIA Market Research
AAIA Market Research
AAIA – Lang Market Comparison
Harmonization of Aftermarket Industry Data

AAIA Factbook 2010