AAIA Factbook 2010 - (Page 19)

afTerMarkeT sales hIsTory anD foreCasT 1997 To 2010 Resulting from a more thorough review of the underlying assumptions built into the earlier model base only on the 1997 census data, sharp variances were found in previous growth rate estimates. These revisions can best be seen when comparing the 5-year CAGR’s from 1997 to 2002 with the CAGR’s for the next 5-years from 2002 to 2007. Significant changes were reported in the New Car Dealers, where previous growth rate estimates dropped from 5.6 percent to 1.8 percent. Another area of significant change occurred in the Auto Parts and Accessories Stores where earlier growth rates of 8.6 percent were reduced to 1.9 percent. Estimated growth rates for General Automotive Repair Shops were also found to be overstated and were subsequently revised downward from 5.2 percent to 4.3 percent. Prior estimates for Automotive Body, Paint & Interior Repair and Maintenance were found to be too low and have since been increased form 3.8 percent to 4.8 percent. sales by Channel: history & forecast NAICS Codes Channel Sales (Millions of Dollars) AAIA Market Total 441110 811111 811121 441310 441320 452910 811192 811191 447190 447110 4412 811113 811122 4521102 454110 811118 42 441120 811112 811198 452990 4442 45431 444130 4521103 445110 4431 8114 454390 4521101 New Car Dealers General automotive repair shops Automotive body, paint & interior repair & maintenance Automotive Parts & Accessories stores Tire Dealers Warehouse clubs & superstores Carwashes Automotive oil change & lubrication shops Other gasoline stations Gasoline stations with convenience stores Other motor vehicle dealers Automotive transmission repair specialists Automotive glass replacement shops Discount or mass merchandising dept stores (excl. leased depts) Electronic shopping & mail-order houses Other automotive mechanical & electrical repair & maintenance Wholesalers Used Car Dealers Automotive exhaust system repair specialists All Other automotive repair & maintenance All other general merchandise stores Lawn & garden equipment & supplies stores Fuel dealers Hardware stores Conventional department stores (excl. leased depts) Supermarkets & other grocery (except convenience) stores Electronics & appliance stores Personal & household goods repair & maintenance Other direct selling establishments National chain department stores (excl. leased depts.) All Others 1997 138,779 44,036 20,497 15,852 12,298 9,460 2,473 3,752 3,196 5,603 1,901 2,061 2,034 1,653 1,568 1,516 2,243 1,349 926 1,985 729 915 2002 178,064 57,758 26,451 19,081 18,571 11,931 3,810 4,648 4,215 5,321 3,333 3,336 2,319 2,505 2,492 2,543 1,899 1,709 1,626 1,206 938 585 609 254 230 184 123 43 14 3 CAGR 97-02 5 .1% 5 .6% 5 .2% 3 .8% 8 .6% 4 .8% 9 .0% 4 .4% 5 .7% -1 .0% 11 .9% 10 .1% 2 .7% 8 .7% 9 .7% 10 .9% -3 .3% 4 .8% 11 .9% -9 .5% 5 .2% -8 .5% 18 .4% -3 .8% 0 .7% -32 .5% -1 .6% -12 .7% -33 .4% -45 .5% 2002 178,064 57,758 26,451 19,081 18,571 11,931 3,810 4,648 4,215 5,321 3,333 3,336 2,319 2,505 2,492 2,543 1,899 1,709 1,626 1,206 938 585 609 254 230 184 123 43 14 3 2007 209,924 63,073 32,647 24,100 20,437 12,390 7,137 6,197 5,633 5,835 4,521 4,271 3,039 3,169 2,953 2,796 2,217 2,150 2,017 1,497 1,251 639 600 305 250 201 147 47 16 3 CAGR 02-07 3 .3% 1 .8% 4 .3% 4 .8% 1 .9% 0 .8% 13 .4% 5 .9% 6 .0% 1 .9% 6 .3% 5 .1% 5 .6% 4 .8% 3 .5% 1 .9% 3 .1% 4 .7% 4 .4% 4 .4% 5 .9% 1 .8% -0 .3% 3 .7% 1 .7% 1 .8% 3 .5% 1 .8% 2 .7% 1 .8% 2007 209,924 63,073 32,647 24,100 20,437 12,390 7,137 6,197 5,633 5,835 4,521 4,271 3,039 3,169 2,953 2,796 2,217 2,150 2,017 1,497 1,251 639 600 305 250 201 147 47 16 3 2008 210,233 62,348 33,436 24,449 20,065 12,051 7,541 6,244 5,709 5,808 4,530 4,242 3,130 3,216 2,937 2,734 2,268 2,174 2,005 1,537 1,270 625 585 299 245 196 144 45 16 3 2009* 207,610 59,702 34,243 24,606 19,474 11,582 7,905 6,170 5,578 5,731 4,515 4,170 3,231 3,237 2,925 2,700 2,322 2,217 1,968 1,581 1,261 614 574 294 240 190 142 45 16 3 2010* 216,897 61,366 36,994 26,163 19,834 11,815 8,571 6,548 5,996 5,916 4,581 4,267 3,499 3,445 2,964 2,655 2,520 2,291 1,977 1,714 1,326 604 566 288 236 187 141 44 18 3 CAGR 07-’10 1 .1% -0 .9% 4 .3% 2 .8% -1 .0% -1 .6% 6 .3% 1 .9% 2 .1% 0 .5% 0 .4% 0 .0% 4 .8% 2 .8% 0 .1% -1 .7% 4 .4% 2 .1% -0 .7% 4 .6% 1 .9% -1 .9% -1 .9% -1 .8% -1 .9% -2 .4% -1 .4% -1 .9% 2 .8% -2 .0% 309 222 1,309 134 84 110 65 0 237 326 6 .6% 326 385 3 .4% 385 377 372 365 -1 .8% Notes: Source: * Forecast Auto Parts Store sales include only those sales to the general public. AAIA Channel Forecast Model 19 2010 digital aft ermarket fa c tb o o k cop yrigh t © 2009 aut omotive aft ermarket industry asso c ia tio n http://pages.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/mercury/aaiafactbook2010/docs/Page_19_Aftermarket_Sales_History_&_Forecast.xls

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AAIA Factbook 2010

AAIA Factbook 2010
Contents
Economic and Financial Indicators
Key Economic Indicators
Aftermarket Employment
Technician Employment and Wages
Aftermarket Mergers and Acquisitions
Financial Profiles of Selected Aftermarket Companies
U S Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Channel Forecast Model
Census Review and Forecast Assumptions
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Size of the Automotive Aftermarket
Aftermarket Sales by Distribution Channel
Aftermarket Service and Retail Channels
Program Distribution Summary
Automotive Aftermarket
Consumer Profile
Sales of Replacement Tires
Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Accessories
Aftermarket Accessories
Chemicals and Fluids
Automotive Chemicals and Fluids
Aftermarket Segments
Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Aftermarket
Paint, Body and Equipment Aftermarket
Tool and Equipment Aftermarket
Vehicle Sales, Usage and Registrations
U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales
Top 10 Light Vehicle Sales
U.S. Motor Vehicle Population
Hybrid Vehicles
Vehicle Operating Costs
Gasoline Affordability and Vehicle Miles Traveled
State Summary Statistics
State Summary Statistics
Global Aftermarket
Global Economic and Automotive Data
Global Vehicle Registrations
Canadian Aftermarket
Mexican Aftermarket
Chinese Aftermarket
Glossary and Reference
Glossary of Aftermarket Terms
NAICS Definitions
Aftermarket Data Resources
Aftermarket Data Resources
AAIA Market Research
AAIA Market Research
AAIA – Lang Market Comparison
Harmonization of Aftermarket Industry Data

AAIA Factbook 2010