AAIA Factbook 2010 - (Page 42)

MeDIuM anD heavy DuTy TruCk afTerMarkeT The medium and heavy duty segment of the aftermarket includes the parts, accessories, non-warranty service repair and maintenance for commercial, industrial and agricultural vehicles, which fall within vehicle weight classes four through eight. Usage of these vehicles and their demand for replacement parts remain strongly linked to the health of the economy. As more raw material and finished goods are shipped across the country, the need for commercial truck transportation tends to increase. The sales trend for the 1997 to 2010 medium and heavy duty truck aftermarket was recalibrated in 2009 to reflect a closer correlation with miles driven for these classes of vehicles. While this procedure provided a reason to adjust earlier estimates of total sales between 2004 and 2007, the current recession provided an even greater reason to reduce last year’s forecast for 2008 by 6.25 percent from $75.2 billion to $70.5 billion. Our forecast for 2009 reflects the impact of this recession followed by a recovery in 2010. Our analysis of truck tonage for 2007 indicates operations were running about 2 percent below the zero baseline for most of that year. However, starting in November of 2007, business began a dramatic improvement as month-to-month increases occurred from October 2007 through September, 2008 at which time the trend once again reversed itself and has been declining ever since. The combined impact of declining truck tonnage and a drop in sales and shipments of truck replacement tires and retreads has provided ample reason for expecting a downturn in 2009. Assuming economists are right about a general recovery in 2010, we expect the medium and heavy duty truck aftermarket to respond accordingly. On balance, we expect 2008 and 2009 to be almost flat followed by a 4.6 percent increase in sales for 2010. Medium and heavy Duty aftermarket sales (billions of retail Dollars) Medium and heavy Duty Miles Driven (1997-2006) (Millions of Miles) 235,000 230,000 225,000 220,000 215,000 210,000 205,000 200,000 195,000 190,000 185,000 180,000 $80 $60 $53.4 $40 $20 $0 $65.6 $61.8 $62.8 $63.8 $55.3 $58.6 $61.5 $60.9 $72.7 $68.8 $70.3 $70.5 $69.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*2010* * Forecast Historical data have been revised. AAIA 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Note: Source: Note: Source: Historical data have been revised. RITA - Research and Innovative Technology Administration sales and shipments of Truck replacement Tires and retreads, 2000-2008 $8 $7 Sales (In Billions) $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Tire & Retread Sales (Left Axis) Tire Shipments (Right Axis) Truck Tonage analysis (% change in 12- Month Moving Total compared to same month of previous year) Tire Shipments 2 (right axis) Tire & Retread Sales (left axis) 1 0 -1 -2 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jun Jun -3 18 Shipments (In Millions) 17 16 15 14 13 12 % Change in Truck Tonage Index 3 Truck Tonage Sources: AAIA’s Industry Indicators Report, American Trucking Associations Note: Historical data have been revised. Sources: AAIA, Modern Tire Dealer’s 2009 Facts Issue 42 2 0 1 0 d i g i t a l a f t e r ma rk et f a ctb o o k c op y r i g h t © 2 0 0 9 a uto mo ti ve a f terma rk et i ndustry associat ion http://pages.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/mercury/aaiafactbook2010/docs/Page_42_Medium_and_Heavy_Duty_Segment.xls

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AAIA Factbook 2010

AAIA Factbook 2010
Contents
Economic and Financial Indicators
Key Economic Indicators
Aftermarket Employment
Technician Employment and Wages
Aftermarket Mergers and Acquisitions
Financial Profiles of Selected Aftermarket Companies
U S Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Channel Forecast Model
Census Review and Forecast Assumptions
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Size of the Automotive Aftermarket
Aftermarket Sales by Distribution Channel
Aftermarket Service and Retail Channels
Program Distribution Summary
Automotive Aftermarket
Consumer Profile
Sales of Replacement Tires
Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Accessories
Aftermarket Accessories
Chemicals and Fluids
Automotive Chemicals and Fluids
Aftermarket Segments
Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Aftermarket
Paint, Body and Equipment Aftermarket
Tool and Equipment Aftermarket
Vehicle Sales, Usage and Registrations
U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales
Top 10 Light Vehicle Sales
U.S. Motor Vehicle Population
Hybrid Vehicles
Vehicle Operating Costs
Gasoline Affordability and Vehicle Miles Traveled
State Summary Statistics
State Summary Statistics
Global Aftermarket
Global Economic and Automotive Data
Global Vehicle Registrations
Canadian Aftermarket
Mexican Aftermarket
Chinese Aftermarket
Glossary and Reference
Glossary of Aftermarket Terms
NAICS Definitions
Aftermarket Data Resources
Aftermarket Data Resources
AAIA Market Research
AAIA Market Research
AAIA – Lang Market Comparison
Harmonization of Aftermarket Industry Data

AAIA Factbook 2010