Aftermarket Insider Issue 75 - (Page 18)

MARkET iNTELLiGENCE industry and economics intelligence indices Overview of march 2012 aaia industry indicators report The U.S. economy began 2012 just as it ended 2011: trending upward. Data for disposable income, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, the purchasing managers’ index and other metrics jumped off to a good start in January. However, preliminary data for industrial production, capacity utilization and the purchasing managers’ index receded in February. On the other hand, consumer confidence which fell in January, recovered strongly in February, surpassing 70 for the first time since February 2011. Light vehicle sales fell in January relative to December 2011, but were still up over 9 percent relative to January 2011. The Dow continues its slow and methodical rise, settling just below 13,200 at the writing of this piece. While GDP in the third quarter of 2011 increased at 1.8 percent, the second estimate for the fourth quarter is a much healthier 3.0 percent, which was upwardly revised .2 percent from the advance estimate. However, the U.S. economy is far from out of the woods. Gold and silver prices are still very high relative to historic averages, inflation continues to hover around 3 percent and gas prices are once again on the rise. The U.S. economy appears primed to take off once again, but plans to increase the dividend tax rate threaten this possibility. Only with sound economic decisions from our policy makers in Washington will the U.S. economy be able to truly recover. The monthly AAIA Industry Indicators Report gathers and reports key automotive aftermarket data, dividing it into the following three categories: automotive retail, automotive parts manufacturing and the heavy duty aftermarket. As we begin the new year, we are reporting four months of data to present greater clarity and the most up-todate view possible. The purpose of this monthly overview is to provide a quick synopsis of the U.S. and global economy while focusing on some of the data in the Industry Indicators Report and applying it for thoughtful discussion and decision making. A key indicator for the economy and the robustness of the automotive aftermarket is miles driven. In January 2012, miles driven rose relative to January 2011 by B Y: D R . T I MO THY G. N ASH 1.6 percent. This is the second straight month in which miles driven has increased relative to the same month of the previous year. Although it still did not increase enough to get a “favorable” assessment, it is the largest increase relative to the same month of the previous year since the increase from October 2009 to October 2010. However, it is still to be seen how miles driven will react to the rising gas prices witnessed so far in 2012. In general, the report clearly demonstrates no change in conditions favorable to the automotive aftermarket. It does show a decrease in conditions unfavorable from seven to five from December to January. The number of conditions favorable outnumbers the number of conditions unfavorable, creating a cause for optimism. For this reason we maintain our position of“guardedly optimistic” for the outlook of the U.S. economy and the automotive aftermarket. industry indicators assessment summaries for march 2012 auto retail report Favorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Indeterminate trend-should monitor = Unfavorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Data not available = auto Parts Manufacturing report Favorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Indeterminate trend-should monitor = Unfavorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Data not available = heavy duty aftermarket report Favorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Indeterminate trend-should monitor = Unfavorable condition for automotive aftermarket = Data not available = na na na nov. dec. Jan. feb. 10 7 6 0 nov. 11 7 5 0 dec. 11 5 7 0 Jan. 6 2 5 10 feb. 10 6 7 0 nov. 11 7 5 0 dec. 12 5 6 0 Jan. 7 2 5 9 feb. The Industry Indicators Report gathers and summarizes key automotive aftermarket data and divides it into the following three categories: automotive retail, automotive parts manufacturing and the heavy duty aftermarket. The purpose of this monthly overview is to provide a quick synopsis of the U.S. while taking some of the data in the Industry Indicators Report and applying it for thoughtful discussion and decision making. Dr. Timothy G. Nash is a vice president and the Fry Chair in Free Market Economics at Northwood University. The Industry Indicators Report is prepared monthly under Dr. Nash’s supervision with assistance from Northwood University economics major Adam Matzke, and funded by AAIA’s Northwood Scholarship program. For more information about Northwood University and their undergraduate Aftermarket program or Automotive MBA Program visit www.northwood.edu or e-mail Matt Bennett at mbennett@northwood.edu. The Industry Indicators Report is an AAIA member-only benefit. Research is posted in the Knowledge Center on the AAIA website at www.aftermarket.org/knowledgecenter, and is accessible through AAIA username and password. For assistance, contact the AAIA membership department at 301-654-6664. 9 5 8 0 10 4 8 0 11 3 8 0 6 3 7 6 18 | AFTERMARKET INSIDER | VOLUME 75 http://www.aftermarket.org/Publications/TrackingTheTrends.aspx http://www.northwood.edu http://www.aftermarket.org/knowledgecenter

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Aftermarket Insider Issue 75

Aftermarket Insider Issue 75
Contents
President’s Message
Aftermarket eForum™
Government Affairs
Association News
Green Highlight
Toolbox
Industry News
Market Intelligence
Association News
Telematics Trendline

Aftermarket Insider Issue 75