Gray Matters Exhibit 1 Accuracy Profile The graph plots the cumulative percentage of bankruptcies and the ratings percentages for each of the three bankruptcy prediction models. The companies in the first rating percentile are the safest from going bankrupt; the companies in the 100th are most in danger. Cumulative Default Percentage 100% Point A 50% bankruptcies occurred in the safest 50 rating percentiles 50% bankruptcies occurred in the unsafest 50 rating percentiles Equal distribution 5 no predictive power Point B 10% bankruptcies occurred in the safest 50 rating percentiles 90% bankruptcies occurred in the unsafest 50 rating percentiles Unequal distribution 5 better predictive power Non-Predictive 50 Z-Score 40 Distance to Default TLTA 30 Ideal Rating Percentile 22 Morningstar Advisor December/January 2010