Morningstar Advisor - April/May 2013 - (Page 21)
Investment Briefs
States’ Fiscal Health
Is Stable, but Cuts Loom
Best and Worst in Revenue Growth
States with Greatest Year-Over-Year Revenue Growth (Fiscal Year 2012)
Economic strength is a critical determinant of
credit quality. It is the chief indicator of the
revenue-raising capacity of an entity. Generally,
states have strong credit ratings because
of the sheer size of their economies, which
dwarf those of local governments. Economic
activity serves as a circuitous indicator
of the state’s revenue-generating capacity—
business activity yields corporate income tax
revenue and employment; employment
yields personal income tax revenue and
consumption; and consumption yields sales tax
revenue and promotes business activity.
State
Revenue
Change (%)
Expenditure
Change (%)
Budgeted Fund Balance
as % Expenditures
FY2013 Budgeted Fund
Balance as % Expenditures
North Dakota
47.0
34.6
75.6
89.2
Alaska
35.2
28.7
222.5
225.1
Illinois
17.4
0.3
1.1
1.1
Hawaii
15.4
10.9
5.0
6.1
Texas
12.5
13.4
17.0
34.1
States with Lowest Year-Over-Year Revenue Growth (Fiscal Year 2012)
Thus, to look at a state’s credit quality, we
directly examine state tax revenues,
which are principally composed of personal
income tax, corporate income tax, general
sales tax, and other taxes. In aggregate, total
state tax revenues increased in fiscal
2012. However, the rate of growth has slowed
considerably, and the magnitude of growth
varies widely between states. As we
look ahead to fiscal 2013, we believe that tax
revenues will continue to rebound for
almost all states but large expenditure
pressures persist, leading to modest budgeting
for growth.
Revenue
Change (%)
Expenditure
Change (%)
Budgeted Fund Balance
as % Expenditures
FY2013 Budgeted Fund
Balance as % Expenditures
California
–3.7
–4.9
–3.3
1.8
New Mexico
–4.3
7.2
12.4
12.8
New Jersey
Gross domestic product is one of the most
relied-upon indicators of economic activity;
however, changes in state revenues are
not always explained by changes in GDP. Over
the past three years, changes in state
revenue have been more volatile than those
of the overall economy. State tax revenue rose
significantly throughout fiscal 2011, even
as GDP remained stubbornly stagnant.
Meanwhile in 2009 and 2010, declines in total
state tax revenue were much more dramatic
than the declines in GDP.
State
–5.0
6.5
1.9
2.1
New Hampshire
–6.1
–5.4
1.9
2.9
Wyoming
–6.4
0.0
47.6
47.2
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax Revenue; National Association of State Budget Officers,
Fiscal Survey of States
Year-Over-Year Quarterly Change in Total State Taxes vs. GDP
%
GDP Change
State Tax Revenue Change
15
10
5
0
–5
–10
–15
–20
06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax Revenue; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross
Domestic Product
2012 Review
For the fiscal year beginning on July 1, 2011 and
ending June 30, 2012, all but five states saw
MorningstarAdvisor.com 21
http://www.MorningstarAdvisor.com
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Morningstar Advisor - April/May 2013
Morningstar Advisor - April/May 2013
Contents
Contributors
Letter From the Editor
The Pursuit of Happiness and Financial Advice
What Strategies Do You Use to Control Risk?
Driven to Succeed for Clients and Family
How to Assess a Portfolio’s Bond Risk
Luck, Skill, and Investing
Investments á la Carte
Investment Briefs
Investing’s No- Brainers Have Costs
A Defensive Ride
Risk On/On Risk
The Risk of Being Overconfident
Year of Living Dangerously
The Risk-Parity Approach
A Guide to Mutual Funds Running Risk-Parity Strategies
What Moats Tell Us About Risk
Risk’s Wake-Up Call
Seeing Is Believing
Why Investors Lag the Returns of Their Funds
Liquidity Signals
Pump Them Up
Golden Oldies Keep on Truckin’
Our Favorite Mutual Funds
50 Most-Popular Equity ETFs
Undervalued Stocks With Wide Moats
Our Social Blind Spot
Morningstar Advisor - April/May 2013
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019winter
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20191201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20181011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20181201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20141011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20141201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20091011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008catalog
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008winter
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com