Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 39
EXHIBIT 2
₁, ₂, ₃, ₄, ₅ =
sensitivity to intermediate-term duration,
long-term duration, investment-grade credit,
high-yield credit, and residual market risk,
respectively.
Similar ETFs These exchange-traded funds offer similar exposure to the indexes
behind the factors.
I applied this model to every surviving actively
managed mutual fund in the intermediateterm bond category over the trailing five, 10, and
15 years through April.
Controlling for Risk, Fewer Funds Outperform
Before controlling for risk, active managers in
the intermediate-term bond category have
a respectable record over the past five and 10 years
( E X H I B IT 3 ). About 47% of the actively managed
funds in the intermediate-term bond category that
were available to investors 10 years ago (at
the beginning of May 2008) went on to survive and
beat the Agg. Of the funds that survived that
period, 75% beat that bogy. That said, investors
didn't know which funds would survive ahead
of time, and those that did not were more
likely to have poor performance. The beat rate was
lower over the 15-year window and higher
over the past five years, partially due to differences
in survivorship rates over those periods.
This data doesn't tell the whole story, because
some managers may have taken greater
risk than the benchmark to beat it. The regression
model revealed that fewer funds in each
window outperformed after controlling for their
exposure to common risk factors. For example,
the rate of outperformance for surviving
funds over the past 10 years dropped to 56% in the
regression model from 75% in the simple
index comparison exercise. This suggests that
many active managers who beat the Agg
did so by taking greater risk, which can be done
more cheaply through passive alternatives.
Factor
ETF
Ticker
BBgBarc US Treasury 3-10 Yr Idx
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF
VGIT
BBgBarc Long Term US Treasury Idx
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF
VGLT
BBgBarc US Corp Bond Idx
Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF
VTC
Markit iBoxx Liquid High Yield Idx
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bd ETF
HYG
BBgBarc US Treasury Idx
iShares US Treasury Bond ETF
GOVT
1-Month Treasuries
SPDR BBgBarc 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
BIL
Source: Morningstar Direct, French Data Library.
EXHIBIT 3
Success Rates Before controlling for risk, active managers in the intermediate-term
bond category have a respectable record over the past five and 10 years. But the
percentage of funds with positive alpha was significantly lower.
% of Funds That Beat the Agg
% of Funds With Positive Alpha
% of
Starting Funds
% of
Surviving Funds
% of
Starting Funds
% of
Surviving Funds
Survivorship Rate
5 Years
55.7
65.3
29.9
35.1
85.2
10 Years
46.9
75.4
35.0
56.3
62.2
15 Years
29.3
61.8
23.2
48.8
47.5
Period
Data as of 04/30/2018.
Source: Morningstar Analyst's Calculations.
EXHIBIT 4
Factor Regression Median Results Our analysis shows that active bond managers
took on greater credit and interest-rate risk than the Agg over the past 10and 15-year periods but that they dialed back their risk over the past five years.
Factor
5-Year
10-Year
15-Year
Alpha
-0.01
0.01
0.00
Intermediate Duration
0.98
1.01
1.03
How Do Active Managers' Risk Profiles Differ
From the Agg's?
Long Duration
0.92
1.06
1.03
shows the median results of the
regression analysis for the active managers in the
intermediate-term bond category over the
trailing five, 10, and 15 years through April. The
figures next to the risk factors show how sensitive
the median fund is to those risks. A value of 1
would indicate that the median active fund has
Investment-Grade Credit
1.11
1.21
1.25
High-Yield Credit
0.99
1.18
1.12
Residual
0.95
1.09
1.10
Adjusted R-Squared
0.96
0.90
0.90
EX H I B I T 4
Data as of 04/30/2018.
Source: Morningstar Analyst's Calculations.
global.morningstar.com/Morningstarmagazine
39
http://global.morningstar.com/Morningstarmagazine
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018
Contents
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - Cover1
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - Cover2
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 1
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 2
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - Contents
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 4
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 5
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 6
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 7
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 8
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 9
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 10
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 11
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 12
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 13
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 14
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 15
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 16
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 17
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 18
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 19
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 20
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 21
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 22
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 23
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 24
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 25
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 26
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 27
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 28
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 29
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 30
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 31
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 32
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 33
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 34
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 35
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 36
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 37
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 38
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 39
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 40
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 41
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 42
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 43
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 44
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 45
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 46
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 47
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 48
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 49
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 50
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 51
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 52
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 53
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 54
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 55
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 56
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 57
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 58
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 59
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 60
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 61
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 62
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 63
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 64
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 65
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 66
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 67
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 68
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 69
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 70
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 71
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 72
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 73
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 74
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 75
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 76
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 77
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 78
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 79
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - 80
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - Cover3
Morningstar Magazine - August/September 2018 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019winter
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20191201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20181011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20181201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20141011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20141201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20091011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008catalog
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008winter
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com