Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 38
Spotlight: Market Crashes
EXHIBIT 1
Traversing Crashes The stock market has made impressive long-term gains, overcoming a black turkey episode, or bear market,
about once every nine years on average.
Growth of
and ea Va ue Inflation d u ted o t e U.S. Stock Market, January
Cumulative Real Wealth
-March
Peak Cumulative Value
$100,000
Peak-Trough
Trough-Recovery
Market Crash Episode
Logarithmic Scale
$19,044
$15,303
Lost Decade
Decline Rank Decline
2
54.00%
Pain Rank
3
Pain Index
85.51%
10,000
10
7
12
Inflation and Vietnam
Decline Rank
WWI and Influenza
3
Decline
50.96%
Decline Rank
4
Pain Rank
2
Pain Index
89.34%
8
Pain Rank
4
Pain Index
80.41%
100
6
2 Part of Great Depression and WWII
16
5
Decline
49.93%
Pain Rank
5
Pain Index
59.57%
10
Crash of 1929 and 1st Part of Great Depression
15 9
13
Decline
51.87%
nd
Decline Rank
14
1,000
17 11
Decline Rank
1
Decline
79.00%
Pain Rank
1
Pain Index
100.00%
1
1870
1885
1900
Sources: Kaplan et al. ( 009), Ibbotson ( 0 0 ,
1915
,
returns.2 I knew from the data that there was
a long history of market crashes, some of
1930
,
,
1945
000), Pierce (19
1960
1975
,
So, what should we call events like the coronavirus
2005
03/2020
03 31 0 0
Black Turkeys Happen All the Time
,
,4
then, I wrote and cowrote a series of articles
in which I discussed this point in some
depth.3 Five of those articles I collected to form
a section of my book on asset allocation
(Kaplan 01 ).
1990
,
black turkey: "an event that is everywhere in
the data-it happens all the time-but to which
one is willfully blind" (Siegel 010).
,
The answer depends on how far back we go
in the data and what measure we use to identify
them. Regarding the data, I created a series
U.S. stock
market returns going back to January 1 and
added annual returns over the period 1 1- 5.
(I compiled this data for a chapter on the history of
market crashes (Kaplan et al. 009) in a book
that Siegel edited (Siegel 009).5)
E X H I B I T 1 shows the growth of $1 (in 1 0 U.S.
dollars) invested in a hypothetical U.S. stock market
index from 1 1 through March 0 0.6
the period of almost 150 years, $1 grows to $15,303.
It wasn't a smooth ride, however. There were many
drops along the way, some of which were severe,
Morningstar acquired Ibbotson Associates in 00 .
3 Kaplan et al. ( 009); Kaplan ( 009a, 009b, 009c, 010); Kaplan, Cooper, Ibbotson, and Mandelbrot ( 009).
4 Siegel is now director of research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation. Before that, he was director of investment research at the Ford Foundation.
5 For a description of how these data were compiled from the sources listed under exhibits 1 and , see Kaplan et al. ( 009), Kaplan ( 009a), and Ibbotson ( 0 0, Chapter 11).
I created the hypothetical index fund of the U.S. stock market in Kaplan et al. ( 009). All dividends are reinvested, and taxes, fees, and other costs are not considered.
3
Morningstar
0 0
Morningstar - Q2 2020
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Morningstar - Q2 2020
Contents
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - CT1
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - CT2
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - Cover1
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - Cover2
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 1
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 2
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - Contents
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 4
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 5
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 6
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 7
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 8
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 9
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 10
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 11
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 12
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 13
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 14
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 15
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 16
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 17
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 18
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 19
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 20
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 21
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 22
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 23
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 24
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 25
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 26
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 27
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 28
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 29
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 30
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 31
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 32
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 33
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 34
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 35
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 36
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 37
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 38
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 39
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 40
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 41
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 42
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 43
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 44
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 45
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 46
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 47
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 48
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 49
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 50
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 51
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 52
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 53
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 54
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 55
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 56
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 57
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 58
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 59
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 60
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 61
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 62
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 63
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 64
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 65
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 66
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 67
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 68
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 69
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 70
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 71
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 72
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 73
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 74
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 75
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 76
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 77
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 78
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 79
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 80
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 81
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 82
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 83
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 84
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 85
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 86
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 87
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 88
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 89
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 90
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 91
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 92
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 93
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 94
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 95
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - 96
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - Cover3
Morningstar - Q2 2020 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019winter
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20191201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20181011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20180203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20181201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20141011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20141201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20091011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008catalog
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008winter
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com