Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 50

Strategies

allows me to use the model to come up with
expected returns on all the asset classes.
I assume that the expected return on cash is 2%
and that the expected return on the
reference portfolio is 6% (a market premium
of 4 percentage points).

Preliquidation Aftertax Expected Return
To form aftertax expected returns, in addition to
before-tax expected returns, four additional pieces
of information are needed for each asset class:

Example of Reverse Optimization Without Taxes
Ref Port. (%)

Beta

Expected Return (%)

Standard Deviation (%)

1

US Large-Cap Stocks

15.25

1.30

7.20

15.00

2

US Mid-Cap Stocks

4.36

1.56

8.24

18.13

3

US Small-Cap Stocks

2.18

1.64

8.55

20.39

4

Global DM x US Stocks

19.28

1.65

8.58

17.61

5

Emerging Market Stocks

11.93

1.98

9.92

22.11

6

Global REITs

1.40

1.63

8.51

20.38

7

US Bonds

21.91

0.07

2.30

3.17

8

Muni Bonds

0.00

0.09

N/A

N/A

9

Global Bonds x US

23.70

0.44

3.78

7.73

0.00

0.00

2.00

0.39

100.00

1.00

6.00

10.34

Reference Portfolio

short-term and long-term capital gains returns.

1 The division of before-tax expected return into

EXHIBIT 1

10 Cash

qualified and nonqualified income returns.
3 The division of expected capital gains return in
4 Turnover.

expected income and capital gains returns.

Asset Class

2 The division of expected income return into

Source: Morningstar.

From these data, we can estimate pre- and
post-liquidation expected aftertax returns.
Preliquidation returns are estimated under the
assumption that unrealized capital gains
are not taxed. Postliquidation returns are
estimated under the assumption that at a specific
day in the future, the cumulative value of
the assets invested in an asset class are sold and
capital gains are realized and taxed.
In the remainder of this section, I discuss how
to estimate preliquidation expected
aftertax returns. In the next section, I discuss
how to use preliquidation returns to estimate
postliquidation returns.
For the division of before-tax expected return and
expected income on each asset class i, let:
T

Bi

where:
= qi LTCG + (1 - qi)
Ii

CGi

Pretax Expected Return
Income Capital Gains
(%)
(%)

Fraction
of Income
Qualified
(%)

Fraction
of Capital
Gains Long
Term (%)

∆t =

= LTi

LTCG

Total
(%)

1

US Large-Cap Stocks

7.20

1.81

5.39

55.48

79.35

28.90

2

US Mid-Cap Stocks

8.24

1.96

6.28

87.99

84.90

22.40

+ (1 - LTi )

VTi = V0i (1 -
24.13
i

=

Ai

6.12

CGi
23.02
14.21
(1 - TOi )
Bi
23.97
21.68

74.30

6.75

81.61

6.84

2.32

43.62

7.47

6.56

55.16

8.52

6.01

75.44

6.55

100.00

100.00

1.38

100.00

100.00

1.41

100.00

100.00

2.27

100.00

100.00

1.20

8.55

1.85

6.70

89.17

80.17

22.17

4

Global DM x US Stocks

8.58

2.93

5.65

83.42

53.09

23.32

5

Emerging Market Stocks

9.92

2.69

7.24

84.27

85.33

29.38
=
TL
( VTi - V0i )
23.15
22.93
i

6

Global REITs

8.51

5.23

3.28

52.97

73.31

29.41

7

US Bonds

2.30

2.30

0.00

0.00

0.00

8

Muni Bonds

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.00

0.00

9

Global Bonds x US

3.78

3.78

0.00

0.00

0.00

2.00

2.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

25.34

40.00 V L = 40.00
VTi - TLi
Ti
40.00
40.00 1
VTiL T
40.00
L
= 40.00
-1
Ai
V0i
40.00
40.00

Source: Morningstar.
Ei

Morningstar Q3 2020

)

49.95

US Small-Cap Stocks

50

OI

4.20

3

10 Cash

OI

= (1 - Ii ) IRi + CGi - TOi (1 + CGi - COSTi ) CGI
Blended Tax Rate
Ai
Aftertax
On Capital
Expected
On Income
Gains
Turnover
Cost Basis
Return
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
T

Asset Class

∑

v= t

EXHIBIT 2

Preliquidation Aftertax Expected Returns

= IRi + CGi

=1-

L
Ai
Bi

i LTCG

1
(1+ r )v- t



Morningstar - Q3 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Morningstar - Q3 2020

Contents
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - CT1
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - CT2
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - Cover1
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - Cover2
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 1
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 2
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - Contents
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 4
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 5
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 6
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 7
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 8
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 9
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 10
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 11
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 12
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 13
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 14
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 15
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Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 20
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Morningstar - Q3 2020 - 80
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - Cover3
Morningstar - Q3 2020 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2024q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2023q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2022q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2021q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q3
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2020q1
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019winter
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_2019spring
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20170203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20171201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20160203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20161201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20150203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20151201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20141011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/magazine_20140203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20141201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20130203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20131201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/investorconference2012
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20120203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20121201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20110203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20111201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20100203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20101201
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20091011
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090809
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090607
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090405
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_20090203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007fall
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2007summer
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008spring
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/morningstar/advisor_2008catalog
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