Jetrader - January/February 2013 - 20

appraisal

Embraer 190
Bob Cowgill Vice President ACI Aviation Consulting 540.428.4388 bcowgill@aciaviation.com

Background
A stretched variant of the Embraer “E-Jet” family of regional aircraft, the 190 made its ﬁrst ﬂight in March 2004. First deliveries were to US LCC JetBlue, still the largest operator of the type, in September 2005. General Electric CF34-10E engines produce 20,000 lbs (9,090 kg) of thrust. The LR version increases MTOW by 5,500 lbs (2,500 kg) above the standard conﬁguration while the AR variant features an MTOW of 114,199 lbs (51,800 kg) and a higher maximum landing weight.
Region In Service Backlog Stored

Current and Future Market Outlook
Occupying the sweet spot in the family of Embraer regional jets, the 190 is, by a large margin, the best seller of the four variants and enjoys a signiﬁcant worldwide presence. The 190 accounts for over 60 percent of E-Jet production in 2012, a ﬁgure that should remain high if any of the 257 options reported on the company’s website are exercised. Well publicized cancellations by JetBlue and CIT point to reduced order intake as carriers and lessors await ﬁrm decisions regarding a re-engined E-Jet family or a new aircraft program. In February 2012, the company announced that it would re-engine the 175, 190 and 195 E-Jet variants with a planned EIS of 2017-2018, although no engine choice was indicated. Recent scope agreements at Delta, United and pending, at this writing, at American Airlines, are mostly limited to 76 seats and will not result in additional 190 orders but may provide a boost to the smaller members of the family and some support for values. The low number of aircraft for sale and in storage indicates stable current valuations. The near-term competitive outlook for the 190 is positive with only the Bombardier CRJ-1000 and Superjet 100/95 currently available in the 95-105 seat range. Longer term, a new design or engine will be necessary to compete effectively the yet-to-be ﬂown Mitsubishi MRJ-90 or the Bombardier CS100.

Africa/Middle East Asia/Paciﬁc Europe + CIS Latin/South America North America Total
Fleet Average Age: 3.4 Years

20 99 86 110 130 434

24 16 17 5 42 102

2 5 1 3 0 11

Carriers with Largest Fleets of EMB-190s

Aircraft in Service

Jet Blue Tianjin Air Canada KLM Cityhopper

56 48 45 22

Year of Build

Current Market Value 30.25 28.50 26.84 25.10 23.47 21.78 20.21 18.61 17.14 2013 28.59 26.93 25.37 23.72 22.18 20.58 19.10 17.59 16.20 2014 27.01 25.45 23.97 22.41 20.96 19.45 18.05 16.62 15.31

2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

Future Base Values, $ millions, including 2.5% annual inﬂ ation 2015 2016 2017 2018 25.53 23.95 22.46 21.07 24.05 22.56 21.16 19.85 22.65 21.25 19.93 18.70 21.18 19.87 18.64 17.48 19.80 18.58 17.42 16.34 18.38 17.24 16.17 15.17 17.05 16.00 15.01 14.08 15.71 14.73 13.82 12.96 14.47 13.57 12.73 11.94

2019 19.61 18.48 17.41 16.27 15.22 14.12 13.10 12.07 11.12

2020 18.26 17.20 16.20 15.15 14.17 13.15 12.20 11.24 10.35

2021 17.00 16.02 15.09 14.11 13.19 12.24 11.36 10.46 9.63

2022 15.71 14.80 13.94 13.03 12.19 11.31 10.49 9.67 8.90

20 The ofﬁcial publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
http://www.relianceaircraft.com
Jetrader - January/February 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - January/February 2013
