Jetrader - May/June 2010 - 28

appraisal

Airbus A320-200
Dr. Stuart Hatcher Head of Valuations & Modelling, International Bureau of Aviation Tel: +44 1372 224488 stuart.hatcher@ibagroup.com

Background
The Airbus A320-200 is a highly successful twin-engine, single-aisle, short-medium range aircraft. Launched in 1984, the shorter range A320-100 ﬁrst ﬂew in February 1987 and entered service with Air France in March 1988. Only 21 A320-100 were produced. The more popular A320-200 variant, capable of greater range thanks to a wing-centre section fuel tank was ﬁrst delivered to Ansett in November 1988. Value determinations take into account recent transaction information (where

available), long-term growth of airline trafﬁc, expected longevity and competitive standing of the subject aircraft relative to current and future aircraft, plus historical trends of past aircraft values. Unusual market concentration; high (or low) fuel economy; obsolescence; any recent new orders; number and percentage of the type in storage, for sale or lease; weights and engine model options; and non-terminated high cost airworthiness directives (where known) also enter into the opinion of appraised values.

Current and Future Market Outlook (March 2010)
The A320 has effectively become a core type in the medium-haul arena along with the 737-800. As operators have integrated the A320 into their intensive schedules, they have proved that the economics, performance and reliability of the type are suited for short- to medium-haul routes. By March 2010, Airbus had delivered 2,257 A320 aircraft, with an order backlog of 1,414 aircraft. With 202 operators worldwide, the A320 has an impressive operator base which should provide ample scope for re-marketing opportunities. The A320 strongest markets are Europe, followed by Asia/ Paciﬁc, North America and Africa/Middle East; there is strong demand for the type from Asia which should help to ensure its continued prosperity. This level of market penetration tends to promote stability in the secondary market for a type and helps to ensure a healthy level of aircraft trading in the future. There are currently 56 Airbus A320-200 aircraft listed as available for sale or lease, which represents only 2.55% of the operating ﬂeet. Storage represents 3.05% of the current operating ﬂeet. In 2009, the aircraft had only three cancellations and received 101 orders over the same period. Airbus has just announced that it will increase the monthly production rate for the A320 family from 34 to 36, starting December 2010, due to current backlog and market recovery.

Basic Specs
Maximum take-off weight ................... 162,000 – 169,800 lbs Fuel capacity................ 6,300 U.S. gallons Passenger conﬁguration .......................... 150 seats – 2 class: 164 seats – single class

As of March 2010: Current Fleet & Backlog by Engine
Engine Total Fleet % Backlog Stored CFM56-5A1/A3 ........................ 338.............. 15.37% ................... 2 ................ 30 CFM56-5B4/B6 ........................ 899..............40.88% ..................639................ 4 IAE V2500-A1 ......................... 125...............5.68% .................... 4 ................ 12 IAE V2500-A5 ......................... 837.............. 38.06% ..................769............... 21 Total ....................................2,199 .............100% .................1,414 ............. 67

As of March 2010: Current Fleet & Backlog by Region
Region No. of Ops. Total Fleet % Backlog Stored Africa/Middle East................. 36 ............ 189 .........8.59%.........231 ................ 0 Asia/Paciﬁc .......................... 44 ............ 604 ........ 27.47% ........558 ................ 3 Europe ................................. 85 ............ 773 ........ 35.15% ........317 ................35 Latin America/Caribbean ........ 13 ............ 185 ......... 8.41% ..........82 ................. 2 North America ...................... 25 ............ 448 ........ 20.37% ........246 ................27 Private/Gov’t/Military/Mfg ...... 7 ...............8...........0.36% .......... 0 .................. 0 Total .................................. 203 ......... 2,199 .......... - .......... 1,434.............. 67

Appraisal Values March 2010:
Airbus A320-200, CFM56-5A1/5B4/V2527-A5, 162,038lb/73.5t
Base Values - Inﬂated at 2.5% per annum Engines 5B4/A5 5B4/A5 5B4/A5 5B4/A5 5B4/A5 5B4/A5 5A1/A1 5A1/A1 Year of Delivery 2010 2007 2004 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 CMV 39.86 34.03 28.64 23.88 19.36 15.64 10.46 7.62 2010 43.80 37.40 31.82 26.53 21.51 17.38 12.60 10.73 2011 41.19 35.14 29.97 25.03 20.29 16.36 11.71 10.00 2012 38.72 32.99 28.21 23.66 19.17 15.27 10.74 9.28 2013 36.34 30.91 26.54 22.17 18.11 14.26 10.01 8.55 2014 34.08 29.08 25.00 20.88 17.01 13.37 9.27 7.82 2015 31.94 27.34 23.60 19.69 15.84 12.38 8.54 7.08

2016 29.86 25.69 22.08 18.56 14.74 11.64 7.80 6.35

2017 28.07 24.16 20.75 17.39 13.78 10.90 7.06 5.62

2018 26.35 22.77 19.53 16.15 12.71 10.16 6.32 4.83

2019 24.73 21.27 18.37 14.98 11.91 9.42 5.58 4.04

2020 23.23 19.95 17.17 13.95 11.11 8.69 4.83 3.23

“CMV” = Current Market Value. Projected Base Values have been inﬂ ated at 2.5% per annum. The aircraft values stated herein are the product and property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. Information current as of March 2010. 28 The ofﬁcial publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
Jetrader - May/June 2010

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