Jetrader - July/August 2008 - 3

from the president Jetrader is a bi-monthly publication of The International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT). ISTAT was founded in 1983 to act as a forum and to promote improved communications among those involved in aviation and supporting industries, who operate, manufacture, maintain, sell, purchase, finance, lease, appraise, insure or otherwise engage in activities related to transport category aircraft. Jetrader Published for: International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading 401 N. Michigan Ave. Suite 2400 Chicago, IL 60611 USA Tel: 312.321.5169 Fax: 312.673.6579 www.ISTAT.org E-mail: istat@istat.org ISTAT BOARD OF DIRECTORS OFFICERS Michael Platt President Thomas W. Hemisoth Immediate Past President John W. Vitale Vice President Gregory A. May Vice President Treasurer Connie Laudenschlager Vice President Secretary DIRECTORS Fred E. Bearden Anthony Diaz Sigthor Einarsson Jay W. Hancock Peter Huijbers Will Hudson Joseph W. Ozimek Marc Allinson Daniel J. Pietrzak Mark Pearman-Wright Stephen T. Rimmer Jep Thornton ISTAT INTERNATIONAL APPRAISERS’ PROGRAM BOARD OF GOVERNORS Fred E. Bearden - Chairman Appraiser Fellow Fred J.Klein - Chairman-Elect Senior Appraiser Steve Boecker - Douglas Emerson Albert A. Nigro - Jeffrey Tenen Tony Whitty - Robert F. Agnew Senior Appraiser William Bath Appraiser Fellow/Administrative Director/ ISTAT International Appraisers Program ISTAT FOUNDATION Stephen T. Rimmer Chairman Michael Platt ISTAT President Thomas W. Heimsoth ISTAT Past President Robert Brown Vice Chairman Gregory A. May Secretary Treasurer TRUSTEES Jon Batchelor Klaus Heinemann Dana Lockhart James Morris Roland H. Moore, Esq. Chris Partridge Nick Popovich David P. Sutton David Treitel Warren Willits INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT TRADING Ron Pietrzak Executive Director Ben Barclay Project Coordinator Dana Henninger Member Services Tracy Schorle Marketing and Communication Services Michael Platt, President International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading United Airlines is grounding 100 aircraft. Continental is grounding 67 aircraft. Ryanair is seasonally parking aircraft. Is this the tip of the iceberg? Will high fuel prices change the core of the airline industry? Will we go back to the days when flying was for the wealthy and everyone else took the train and the bus? Are airlines simply trimming the older, less efficient aircraft from their fleets that should be retired anyway, thereby helping make the industry healthier? Will the capacity reductions, the move to more fuel efficient automobiles and other cost-driven fuel consumption reductions have enough of an effect on fuel demand to bring down the cost, allowing airlines to bring parked aircraft back into their fleets? With fuel having increased by more than 30 percent in the last 90 days, as of this writing, (clearly consumption hasn’t gone up by anywhere near that figure), there are some pundits who don’t think demand and price have much to do with one another in any event. My opinion is that if you look at airline passenger demand over a long enough period of time, it will always increase. Sure there will be blips like we saw in 2001 and like those we are bound to see in the near future as capacity is cut and fares are raised, but how many of us wouldn’t bet that there will be more RPK’s flown in 2013 than are flown today and more flown in 2018 than in 2013? This couldn’t be the case if only the wealthy will be able to afford to fly. Entrepreneurs following in the footsteps of innovators like Herb Kelleher, Michael O’Leary and David Neeleman will resurface when the middle class gets squeezed out and will find a way to service that huge market. I don’t believe for a second that the folks in Las Vegas or Orlando are going to sit back while airlines cut capacity to their cities because vacationers won’t pay the fares the airlines need just to break even. Perhaps the hotel and airline industries will find new ways to work together. None of us know what adaptations will be implemented, but we do know that at some point aircraft will be required and financing and leasing will be required too. At an early June ISTAT Board meeting in Chicago, we discussed the current market pressures and asked ourselves what we could do to help our members navigate through these turbulent waters. We decided to use our resources to bring you a series of free Webinars in the fall to share vital information. We will keep them relevant, short and provide some time for Q&A. Your Board is committed to finding ways to better serve our membership and we hope that these Webinars will be useful. Please let me know if you have other ideas about how ISTAT can best serve its members. Jetrader 3

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Jetrader - July/August 2008

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