Jetrader - September/October 2008 - 27

appraisal Airbus A319 Bob Cowgill Vice President, ACI Aviation Consulting Tel: +1 540 428 4388 Email: bcowgill@aciaviation.com Background Having entered service in 1995, the A319 is a prominent member of the A320 narrow-body aircraft family. While the family has a combined operating ﬂeet of 3,500-plus aircraft with a backlog of 2,600-plus units, the A319 currently has 1,085 aircraft operating with 79 operators worldwide and a backlog of over 500 units extending to 2017. The primary competitors are the B737-300/-700, which share similarities in size, weight and range. Basic specs: Wing span – 111ft. 10inches Length – 111 ft. MTOW – 141,100 lbs. with maximum option up to 166,500 lbs. MLW – 134,500 lbs. with maximum option up to 137,800 lbs. MZFW – 127,500 lbs. with maximum option up to 129,000 lbs. Fuel Capacity – 6,300 U.S. gallons with maximum option up to 7,885 U.S. gallons Range – 1,800 nm up to maximum 3,700 nm Seating Capacity – Typical 2 class conﬁguration 124 seats, one class conﬁguration 134 seats at a 32 in pitch (Max 160) Current Fleet & Backlog by Engine Manufacturer as of April 2008 CFM IAE Unannounced Total In Service % Backlog Options 705 65% 209 170 358 33% 149 219 22 2% 181 1085 539 389 Aircraft Model Current Fleet & Backlog by Region as of April and June 2008 Region Africa/Middle East Asia/Paciﬁc Europe Latin America/ Caribbean North America Executive/ Private Jets Undisclosed Total In Service 22 172 429 78 336 48 0 1085 Percentage Operators Backlog Options Stored 2% 15.9% 39.5% 7.2% 31% 4.4% 100% 79 7 22 35 6 9 28 75 189 63 168 0 16 539 0 0 207 28 155 0 0 389 0 0 2 0 14 4 0 20 Table Sources: Airbus and ACAS Year of Build 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 CMV 17.85 18.81 19.83 20.90 22.13 23.44 24.82 26.41 28.10 29.90 31.81 33.53 35.34 Base Value 15.36 16.80 18.08 19.57 21.08 22.74 24.27 25.85 27.62 29.47 31.45 33.77 36.12 38.83 Average age: 5.2 yrs Current and Future Market Outlook: While not reaching the popularity of the A320, the A319 has become a cornerstone in the ﬂeet of carriers seeking lower capacity and commonality with the larger variants. With well beyond 1,000 unit deliveries and a broad operator base, the A319s value outlook should be stable as they continue to be delivered to fuel the expansion of the most successful LCC’s, and to replace Boeing 737 “classics” and others in the ﬂeets of established carriers. Any reconsideration in the ﬂeet plans of United, US Airways, Northwest, Frontier and Spirit—accounting for about a quarter of the A319s in operation— could have a negative effect on the aircraft’s strong backlog. More than 500 units are in backlog, of which about 19 percent are held by lessors (half of those already placed) and 21 percent held by the dominant A319 operator, easyJet, leaving more than half of the remaining customers waiting between now and 2017 for delivery. This suggests opportunity for operators needing lift to pick up any A319’s coming into the market. Airbus A319-100 series, CFM56-5/V2500-A5, 141,100 lbs Values assume the aircraft and engines are in a mid-life condition The aircraft values stated herein are the product and property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. Information current as of 7/31/2008. Jetrader 27
Jetrader - September/October 2008

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