Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 50

appraisal

Airbus A320
Steve Rehrmann, ATP/FE, ISTAT Certified Appraiser CK Aviation Services Tel: 571-249-8800

Background
The A320 entered service in 1988 with an impressive number of “ﬁrsts.” Fly-by-wire, carbon brakes, and composites incorporated in the wing, tail, control surfaces, ﬂaps, fairings, panels and gear doors all contribute to reduced maintenance costs. A larger crosssection than its rivals also ﬁnds great appeal with passengers. Typical seating is 16 ﬁrst and 132 economy with max certiﬁcated of 179. MGTOW is 171,958 pounds. The new technologies introduced with this aircraft established Airbus as a leader in the aircraft industry. The new engine option will also be available for the A319 and A321. The A320neo has 95 percent airframe commonality with other A320s and is due to enter service in the fourth quarter of 2015. As of 20 July, the geographic distribution of the 1,467 A320neo Family orders are: Asia/Paciﬁc – 468, Europe – 60, Latin America – 75, Middle East – 30, and North America – 834, for a total of 1,467 aircraft. The current engine selection (by aircraft count) is: CFM – 455, P&W – 270 and TBA – 742. These totals reﬂect the American Airlines order for the A320neo Family announced 20 July.

A320neo
Announced 1 December 2010, the new engine option (neo) garnered an all-time Air Show order record—an unprecedented 538 ﬁrm orders at the 2011 Paris Air Show. The aircraft will feature Sharklets (savings of one percent fuel burn on 500 nautical miles sectors and up to 3.5 percent on 3,000 nautical miles) as standard and offer the CFM LEAP or Pratt & Whitney Pure Power PW1100G engine. Airbus claims a reduction of 15 percent in fuel burn leading to a savings of up to 3,600 tons of CO2 per year, NOx up to 50 percent below CAEP/6, noise reduction up to 15dB below Chapter 4, and an increase of 500 nautical miles range or a 4,400 pound increase in payload. A320-200 CBV Future Base Values - 2% Inﬂation 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2011 42.2 40.8 39.5 38.1 36.8 36.1 2009 36.3 35.1 33.8 32.6 31.3 30.7 2007 31.0 29.9 28.7 27.6 26.4 26.2 2005 26.5 25.4 24.4 23.3 22.3 22.0 2003 22.5 21.5 20.6 19.6 18.6 18.7 2001 19.3 18.4 17.5 16.6 15.6 15.8 1999 16.6 15.7 14.9 14.0 13.1 13.5 1997 14.2 13.4 12.5 11.7 10.9 11.5 1995 12.1 11.3 10.5 9.7 8.9 8.5 1993 9.1 8.4 7.7 7.0 6.3 7.0 1991 8.2 7.5 6.7 6.0 5.2 6.4 1989 7.5 6.7 5.9 5.0 4.2 ISTAT single aircraft transaction criterion. Values as of July 2011. Copyright 2011 CK Aviation Services YoB CMP 2016 35.4 30.1 25.3 21.2 17.6 14.7 12.3 10.1 8.1 5.6 4.5 3.4 2017 34.1 28.8 24.1 20.2 16.7 13.8 11.4 9.2 7.3 4.9 3.8 2.6 2018 32.7 27.6 23.0 19.1 15.7 12.9 10.5 8.4 6.5 4.2 3.0 2019 31.3 26.3 21.9 18.1 14.7 12.0 9.7 7.6 5.7 3.5 2.3 2020 30.0 25.1 20.7 17.0 13.7 11.1 8.8 6.7 4.9 2.9 2021 28.6 23.8 19.6 15.9 12.8 10.2 7.9 5.9 4.1 2.2

Market Outlook
The A320 is enjoying a tremendous vote of conﬁdence with the emergence of the neo as the new benchmark in the singleaisle market. The A320 has now taken the banner as the aircraft model in production for the longest period of time, and it appears the neo will extend that distinction to a record that will not be broken for many decades—if it is broken at all. With a very large operator base, CKAS does not believe the neo will impinge on the current model’s residual values for at least 15 years after EIS.

The aircraft values stated herein are the product and property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.

Current Fleet - Engine Selection A319 CFM56 65% V2500 35% 100% Source: ACAS

A320 56% 44% 100%

A321 42% 58% 100%

Geographic Distribution as of: 6/30/2011 Africa Asia/Paciﬁc Europe Latin Am & Caribbean Middle East North America Source: Airbus A320 53 687 756 179 109 909

50 The ofﬁcial publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
Jetrader - September/October 2011

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - September/October 2011
