Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 11

(left) Forecast Process - Here, Mike Warner (foreground), Boeing Commercial Airplanes marketing director and lead forecaster for its annual Current Market Outlook, and his team review the 2012 presentation at the company’s Renton, Wash., headquarters prior to its July debut. The company’s latest update forecasts a $4.5 trillion market for 34,000 new commercial jetliners between now and 2031.

Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries forecast. Low-cost carriers are also growing faster than the market as a whole.
Chart 1: Market Assessment
Boeing’s 2012 look at the commercial aviation market 20 years hence forecasts the need for 34,000 new airplanes valued at $4.5 trillion. Already nearly a quarter of the forecast is in the backlog of the company and its competitors. The company’s estimate increased modestly over last year’s report. (Source: Boeing)

Market Assessment: Airlines will need 34,000 new airplanes valued at $4.5 trillion

Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president for marketing, serves as the ofﬁcial spokesman for the company’s annual long-term forecast for air travel growth and its implications for airplane builders, buyers and the traveling public. Tinseth is a frequent speaker on Boeing’s behalf at ISTAT and other industry conferences around the world.

Chart 2: Growth and Replacement
Boeing’s latest market outlook anticipates the world’s ﬂeet will more than double in the next 20 years. 60 percent of the demand forecast is for growth with the largest areas expected to be China, India, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. Meanwhile, 40 percent is to replace older aircraft particularly in the largest replacement markets of the U.S., Europe and Russia. (Source: Boeing)

Growth and Replacement: Older, less efﬁcient airplanes will be replaced with more efﬁcient, newer generation airplanes

Growth is the Game, Resilience the Secret
Airline trafﬁc is expected to grow at a 5 percent annual rate over the CMO’s term, with cargo trafﬁc expected to increase at an annual rate of 5.2 percent (see Chart 2: Growth and Replacement). While Boeing still foresees air-cargo growth, it revised downward slightly its freighter projections. The job of gathering, analyzing and packaging CMO data belongs to Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ market analysis team, based at the builder’s headquarters near Seattle. Jetrader 11

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Jetrader - September/October 2012

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - September/October 2012

A Message from the President
Calendar/News
Boeing Fine Tunes 20-Year Current Market Outlook
Showers, Sunshine and (Some) Surprises
ISTAT Introduces Farnborough Airshow Chalet
Airline Finance from an Operating Lessor’s Perspective
Q&A: Leonard Kazmerski
State of the Regions: Europe
A Case of Olympic Proportions
Aircraft Appraisals
ISTAT Foundation
International Appraisers’ Program
Advertiser.com/Advertiser Index
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - cover1
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - cover2
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 3
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 4
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 6
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 7
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - Calendar/News
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 9
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - Boeing Fine Tunes 20-Year Current Market Outlook
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 11
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 12
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 13
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 14
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 15
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - Showers, Sunshine and (Some) Surprises
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 17
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 18
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 19
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 20
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 21
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 22
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 23
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - ISTAT Introduces Farnborough Airshow Chalet
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 25
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 26
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 27
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - Airline Finance from an Operating Lessor’s Perspective
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 29
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 30
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 31
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 32
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - Q&A: Leonard Kazmerski
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 34
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 35
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 36
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - State of the Regions: Europe
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 38
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 39
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - A Case of Olympic Proportions
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 41
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 42
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 43
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 44
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 46
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 47
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - ISTAT Foundation
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 49
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 50
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - International Appraisers’ Program
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 52
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - 53
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - Advertiser.com/Advertiser Index
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - cover3
Jetrader - September/October 2012 - cover4
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