NFPA Journal - Spring 2023 - 9

NEWS FROM NFPA
AND BEYOND
out these atrocities, and why do they do it? Are there
telltale warning signs that could make it possible to
identify would-be shooters before they pull
the trigger?
One federal agency is trying to answer those
questions, or at least provide clues. Just two days
after the killing sprees in California, the US Secret
Service released a report, " Mass Attacks in Public
Spaces: 2016-2020, " that offers a detailed look at
scores of incidents. For the project, researchers
from the agency's National Threat Assessment
Center (NTAC) studied 173 mass shootings in
the US and analyzed details of each shooter's
background, motivations, and preattack behavior-anything
that could reveal patterns to inform
future preventative action.
According to the report's authors, the analysis
" demonstrates how mass attackers display a range
of observable concerning behaviors across a variety
of community systems as they escalate toward
violence. " This trail of evidence, the NTAC alleges,
provides enough clues for well-trained community
organizations to stop shootings before they start.
" Everyone in the community plays a role in
violence prevention, " Lina Alathari, the chief of
NTAC, said in a release the day the study was
published. " The latest NTAC report provides an
unprecedented analysis to support our public
safety partners and affirms that targeted violence
is preventable if communities have the right information
and resources to recognize warning signs
and intervene. "
That whole-community approach is also the
basis for NFPA 3000, Standard for an Active
Shooter/Hostile Event Response (ASHER) Program.
While the standard currently focuses on
community-level preparation, response, and
recovery around hostile events, some experts note
that the highly granular process of identifying
possible attackers could conceivably fall within
an expanded NFPA 3000-meaning it could be
conducted within an existing framework that
includes public safety, law enforcement, emergency
services, social services, and a host of other
community resources.
The crux of the issue
All of this sounds promising, but can analyzing
someone's behavior really tell you ahead of time
whether a person will kill?
The idea of analyzing warning signs and
planning interventions before violence occurs
is widely known to the security and prevention
industry as behavioral threat assessment. The
concept has grown in recent years, particularly
in school districts, with several now mandating
that employees receive at least basic training
to determine when certain behavior may lead
to violence. In Virginia, for instance, state law
requires schools to assemble
a group of faculty members
into a threat assessment team
whenever even a relatively
minor incident-such as
when a student threatens to
hit a teacher-comes to their
attention. According to the
law, the behavioral threat
assessment team must include
NFPA.ORG/
DISPATCHES
Read the
report " Mass
Attacks in
Public Spaces:
2016-2020. "
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about NFPA
3000.
faculty with expertise in counseling, instruction,
school administration, and law enforcement. Team
members interview the student and witnesses,
talk to parents, and take other measures to assess
the threat, and if warranted, report it and set up
a plan to monitor the situation and make sure it
doesn't escalate.
The NTAC report encourages communities to
build a similarly holistic system, with various entities-schools,
businesses, law enforcement, mental
health services, and others-working separately
and in concert to identify warning signs and take
appropriate action when concerns emerge. The
report stops short, however, of providing a specific
roadmap for doing so. Instead, it offers a series
of high-level " key implications " gleaned from the
data collected from past events to help inform
communities about where threats are likely to
emerge and how to identify them.
The study found, for instance, that three
quarters of the attackers showed behavior or
communications that concerned family members,
friends, neighbors, coworkers, or other acquaintances.
On that point, the report recommends that
communities " encourage and facilitate bystander
reporting and be prepared to respond when
reports of concern are received. "
The study also found that many shooters had a
history of " physically aggressive or intimidating
behaviors " such as past arrests for violent crimes
or domestic violence, and many had grievances
related to personal, domestic, or workplace
issues. About a quarter of shooters subscribed to
a belief system heavy with conspiracy theories
or hateful ideologies, " including antigovernment,
anti-Semitic, and misogynistic views. "
What's more, the report found, many attackers
had experienced stressful events across " various
life domains, " such as issues with relationships,
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NFPA Journal - Spring 2023

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