Multi-Housing News - September 2008 - (Page 19)

market pulse Multifamily Starts 450,000 404,000 400,000 356,000 342,000 308,000 351,000 350,000 Units 332,000 Starts To Date A Tad Below Expectations Commentary and Data Supplied by Dean Crist, Senior Economist, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) 300,000 287,000 276,000 280,000 261,000 309,000 250,000 220,000 211,000 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July ’07 ’08 Rent Changes Percentage Change from a Year Ago 5.0% Rent 4.2% CPI 5.5% Multifamily Starts: After the big boost reflecting the large number of starts in New York City last month, things have calmed down. Preliminary starts numbers for last month would give us a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000 units for 2008 That’s a bit shy of the 325,000 level that NAHB’s forecast currently calls for, but as we’ve seen, monthly numbers can swing wildly up and down, depending on local market conditions. Rent Changes: The consumer price index keeps rising—but the cost of rent has barely fluctuated over the last six months. On the one hand, that makes current rents seems more reasonable. On the other hand, residents have less money to spend on rent. 4.0% Rent 3.7% 3.0% CPI 2.4% 2.0% July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July ’07 ’08 Interest Rates: It’s “steady as she goes,” for the Prime rate and the LIBOR index—and slight downward movement for the 10-year Treasury notes. That minor slide actually may signal some good news for publicly-held multifamily firms: In the August issue of NAHB’s Multifamily Market Outlook (www.nahbmonday.com/outlook/issues/2008-07-30), housing policy economist Elliot Eisenberg pointed out that as the yield for Treasury instruments falls, the stock prices of multifamily firms tend to rise. MHN Sources for Multifamily Starts, Rent Changes, Interest Rates: National Association of Home Builders. To comment, contact Keat Foong at kfoong@multi-housingnews.com. Interest Rates 8.0% Prime 8.25% 7.0% 6.0% Percentage 3-Month Libor 5.36% Prime 5.00% 10-Year 4.01% 5.0% 10-Year 5.00% MHN ONLINE Don’t miss “Capital Insights with Jack Kern,” a new blog focusing on markets & metrics at www.multi-housingnews.com/blog. Capital Insights will point out interesting facts, debunk some fictions and offer concise analysis. 4.0% 3-Month Libor 2.79% 3.0% 2.0% July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July ’07 ’08 www.multi-housingnews.com | September 2008 19 http://www.nahbmonday.com/outlook/issues/2008-07-30 http://www.nahbmonday.com/outlook/issues/2008-07-30 http://www.multi-housingnews.com/blog http://www.multi-housingnews.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Multi-Housing News - September 2008

Multi-Housing News - September 2008
Contents
Calendar of Events
From the Editor
Executive Insight
Property Management: Growth Plans
Development & Design: Low-Rise Trends
Market Pulse
Special Report: Green Design Makes 'Cents'
Market Report: Boston
Top Architects List
Finance: HUD
Products: Cabinetry
Tech Report: Internet Listing Services
NMHC Notebook
Property Showcase: Fitness Center

Multi-Housing News - September 2008