Multi-Housing News - January 2009 - (Page 10)

Forecast 2009 Better Times for Economy this Year? Mark Obrinsky, Bernard Markstein and Jamie Woodwell weigh in on why we may see the statistics head up By Keat Foong, Executive Editor Believe it or not, the economy is likely to start making a comeback this year, at least according to some trade economists. “Essentially, we think we will still be in a recession in the first part of the year, but there will be a recovery in the second half of 2009,” said Bernard Markstein, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). NAHB forecasts an upturn in GDP growth to an annualized rate of 1.0 percent in the third quarter of ’09. Similarly, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts that GDP should turn positive, to 2 percent annualized rate, in the third quarter of this year. This will follow what it predicts would be contractions of 3.7, 2.0 and 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter 2008 and first and second quarters 2009, respectively. Jamie Woodwell, MBA vice president of commercial real estate research, explains that in the second half of last year, the sharp pullback on the part of consumers contributed to the big drops in GDP. This year, business inventory contractions would play a larger role in the decrease in GDP. By later this year, however, “The economy would have pulled back to the level from which they can start moving again,” said Woodwell. Many predictions are based on expectation of a huge fiscal stimulus by the Obama Administration and the new Congress. “The federal government and Congress are stepping in with programs which I think will have some positive impact to turn the economy around,” said Markstein. Mark Obrinsky, chief economist of National Multi Housing Council (NMHC), adds that for the present recession to continue past 2009, it would have lasted for 24 months, which is a very long period for a recession by historical standards. The housing slump, the root of the economic and financial crises, is also forecasted to come to an end this year. NAHB is predicting new home sales to bottom and flatten in the first two quarters, and reverse course in the third quarter. “The real improvement in the housing market will be in the fourth quarter, though even then it will be slow growth,” said Markstein. “It will not be a sharp jump back in the housing market as in previous recoveries.” Unfortunately, job growth—the bellwether of the health of the apartment industry—is not predicted to recover as quickly. “The job market is the biggest 10 January 2009 | Multi-Housing News | Official Publication of Multi-Housing World

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Multi-Housing News - January 2009

Multi-Housing News - January 2009
Contents
From the Editor
Market Pulse
Executive Insight
Economic Forecast 2009: The Year Ahead
Apartment Market Outlook
Development & Design: Walkable Neighborhoods
Property Management: Handling Risk in a New Age
Directory: Top Brokers
Kitchen & Bath: Rehabs
Products: Noise Control
Technology: Property Management Software
Property Showcase: St. Regis, Bal Harbour

Multi-Housing News - January 2009