The Pellucid Perspective - August 2013 - (Page 16)

MARKET FOCUS Finding golfers no circus act in Sarasota Bradenton-Sarasota, FL Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA) C ontinuing our sequential series of profiling the healthiest Top 25 US Golf Markets as quantified and ranked by Pellucid using a composite score of 10 measures (things like population size/growth, golfer base, rounds generation, supply/demand balance, utilization and RevpAR), this month we highlight the 4th healthiest golf market in the country, Bradenton-Sarasota Florida. (That makes 2 California markets and 2 Florida markets so far). Midway up the west coast of Florida and with one of the highest and longest bridges between there and the Tampa airport (been over that one multiple times, several in excess of 80 MPH trying to get back to Tampa from Tropicana’s HQ to make the last flight of the day) and the former winter home of the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus back in its heyday, this area continues to be a draw for golfers. By rounds demand (our selection criteria for market inclusion in the Top 25 list), Bradenton-Sarasota ranks number 23 of US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just over 3M rounds. (Remember this includes rounds by both local and non-local golfers). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that Bradenton-Sarasota is home to a relatively sparse 0.1M golfers (this is only local, resident population, obviously doesn’t count all the snowbirds). That golfer base is served by a relatively healthy 83 18-hole equivalent (EHE) facilities producing a ratio of less than 1K golfers per EHE which is abnormally low vs. the national average but, again, doesn’t incorporate the significant influence of the seasonal population. The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid’s five access/value/usage segments shows a bias to the Private and Premium-Public segments, which combined represent roughly 2/3 of all supply. The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 65%/35%, which is significantly skewed to Value-added vs. the national distribution of 50%/50%. Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 60%/37%/4%, which represents a strong bias to the higher end, compared to the national distribution of 34%/42%/24%. (One has to consider, however, that the price segmentation is based on highest posted price, so this isn’t incorporating the FL pricing structure of winter vs. summer golf ). All in all, Bradenton-Sarasota follows the same pattern we saw last issue in Ft Myers, catering to the prototypical high-end retirement-driven marketplace which is driven by a reasonable population (augmented by strong seasonal influx) but totally engaged in the golf lifestyle and playing at high frequency on both fixed (Private) and variable (Public-Premium) pricing. During the “go-go” years of supply development (19902000), Bradenton-Sarasota was a full-on participant in the build-a-course-a-day craze, adding supply at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of >2%. Mitigating that robust annual increase in supply, however, was countering annual 16 The Pellucid PersPecTive Private PublicPremium PublicValue PublicPrice Learning & Practice Bradenton-Sarasota, FL CBSA Future Facility Golfer Base – Est. # of Golfers (Ks) – # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities – Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv. Tot US Index vs. US 57.8 24,400 83 14,675 696 1,663 42 Supply Mix – Private – Pub-Prem – Pub-Val – Pub-Price – Learn & Prac 34% 31% 19% 2% 14% 27% 23% 28% 16% 6% 126 135 68 13 233 15% 10% 3% –15% 467 N/A –6% –19% 29 34.5 26.7 129 45% $1,802 44% $836 102 216 $24 $11 218 Supply/Demand Balance – ’00-’11 Cume Supply Growth/Decline – ’00-’11 Cume Rds Demand Growth/ Decline – ’00-’11 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution (-)/Absorption (+) Level* – Avg Ann Rds Velocity (ks per 18-hole Equiv.) Rounds & GF Revenue Health – % Utilization Rate – Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public Regulation EHE ($Ks) – Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) * Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply + Inverse index, lower is better Above average level vs. US (Index >105) Average level vs. US (Index 95-104) Below average level vs. US (Index <95) August 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - August 2013

The Pellucid Perspective - August 2013
Contents
Say good-bye to Ladies Day?
2013 mid-year review: Anyone get the license place of that truck?
The true cost of barter
Snowboarding is to skiing as ??? is to golf
New private club buyer/investor emerges
Skybrook Golf Club, Charlotte Golf Links owe millions, placed in receivership
July golf weather impact: Finally, a weather-favorable month vs. ’12
Finding golfers no circus act in Sarasota
Random shots

The Pellucid Perspective - August 2013