The Pellucid Perspective - November 2017 - 12

MARKET FOCUS

Columbus needs more
tee times, less halftimes

Columbus OH Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)

asking in the glow of the Buckeyes demolishing Michigan State 48-3 recently there's likely joy in Muddville as
we turn our attention this month to Columbus, Ohio.
While there are many attractions and noteworthy elements of
this Great Lakes market, the storyline often involves or touches
"The Ohio State University" (great agronomy program by the
way) and, from September to December or hopefully January,
the OSU Buckeyes. It's also a more benign weather golf market
than most people give it credit for, with Pellucid showing it as
227 Equivalized Playable Days for the 10-year average, but is it
a "good golf market"? That's what we want to know (apologies
to the OSU faithful) ... as we look at the 16th healthiest US golf
market using Pellucid's composite score.
By number of golfers, Columbus ranks number 22 of US
markets with 204K golfers estimated in the local population
(not counting tourists). That golfer base is served by 101 18hole equivalent (EHE) facilities, producing a ratio of roughly
2K golfers per EHE which is slightly above the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments skews significantly to PublicPremium. On the flip side, Public-Price and Learning & Practice (the combined "bunny slopes" for golf ) are dramatically
under-represented supply segments vs. the US average. The
balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public Premium)
vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is
62%/38%, highly more concentrated to the high end vs. the national distribution of 46%/54%. Within Public-Regulation golf,
the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 45%/40%/15%
which also shows a meaningfully higher concentration in the
Premium segment at the expense of the Value and Price segments compared to the national distribution of 30%/42%/27%.
(Remember that Pellucid calculates the value calculations at individual market level so this doesn't necessarily mean that golf is
too expensive in the absolute, this is just the distribution across
their price spectrum as you'll see below in the Avg. Ann. Revenue measure). All in all, the mix of the Public supply types to
the higher end suggests that the area needs a reasonable number
of moderate-and-up income consumers to match that supply.
During the "go-go" years of supply development (19902000), Columbus was slightly ahead of the pack in the build-acourse-a-day craze, adding 395 holes of golf during the period.
Only slightly mitigating that 3% annual increase in supply was
a 1-2% annual population growth, meaning the market came
into the 21st century with a 16% supply "overhang" (compared
to the national average which was 10% excess). Since 2000, the
change in supply has moderated to a very manageable annual
rate of ~1% which is slightly less than the annual population
growth (chugging along at a very steady and above US average

12 The Pellucid PersPecTive

Private

PublicPremium

PublicValue

Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.

PublicPrice

Learning
& Practice

Columbs, OH
CBSA

Supply Mix
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level* **
- Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole
vs. ks) (EHE)
Rounds & GF Revenue Health
- % Utilization Rate
- Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public
Regulation EHE ($Ks)
- Revenue per Available Round
(RevpAR)

Future
Facility

Tot US

Index
vs. US

204.0 26,300
101 14,924
2,030 1,762

115

34%
28%
25%
9%
5%

26%
20%
28%
18%
8%

131
140
89
50
63

11%
6%

8%
-10%

133
N/A

-5%

-18%

29.0

27.7

105

49%
$731
$10

52%
$983
$16

95
74
62

* Inverse index, lower is better
** Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply

Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)

rate of +1.5%), suggesting that modest supply absorption may
be taking place. In the post-2000 period, we track supply dilution by comparing supply change to change in rounds demand,
which results in neutral supply absorption (+1% annual rounds
November 2017

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - November 2017