The Pellucid Perspective - December 2017 - 11

fall on rounds demand; for the pessimists, that means we're unable to grow demand beyond the narrow weather variances).
Figures for the month at the National and 61 key Markets
(including Pellucid's designated Top 25 markets) level are also
available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic
Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "One look at the map of the
results shows the bloodbath of red figures for the month for
nearly every market above the Mason Dixon line and extending
that to the West Coast. November rounds results are not going
to be pretty so brace yourselves. Fortunately key markets in the
full-season geographies further south and on the Atlantic Coast

Rounds by Facility Type Oct 2017
All Fac.
Types

Public
Access

Private

2.0% ___________________________________________
1.0% 1.0%
1.0% ___________________________________________
0.0% ___________________________________________
-1.0% ___________________________________________
-2.0% ___________________________________________
-2.2%
-3.0% ___________________________________________
-3.1%

-4.0% ___________________________________________
-4.1%
-5% ___________________________________________
-5.4%%
-6% ___________________________________________

Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance

For reference, Utilization and Point Change vs. Year Ago (YA)
tracks rounds demand after factoring for weather. The comparative benchmark is the Year End (YE) '16 value of 52%. For
those not familiar with Pellucid's Weather Impact tracking, the
underlying concept is relatively simple. In a theoretical world
of rounds following weather, a 5% increase in Available Rounds
would produce a 5% gain in Played Rounds. By comparing
Played Rounds to Available Rounds, we can determine the Utilization of the average facility and how it's changing during the
changing during the year vs. the benchmark.
The first set of bars show that October posted a Utilization
rate of ~54% which was a 2 points better than the YE '16 value
(got the "rounds down but not as much as weather" scenario in
October). The second set of bars show the Year-to-Date (YtD)
results with Utilization edging up to 51% which is a 1 point
deficit vs. the benchmark (so month's gain was enough to nudge
this figure up marginally). With 10 months in the books, the
math suggests that we'll end the year at a similar Utilization rate
as '16 but on the fractionally lower side (for those readers into
one decimal point precision).

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had at least neutral weather so that should insulate the national
numbers from the shock slightly. At the market level for YtD
Utilization, the majority of markets (40 of 61) continue to track
in the neutral zone but among the non-neutrals the breadth
continues to be negative with "laggards" outnumbering "leaders"
by 2:1. Among Pellucid's Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD
period, Miami (#14) continues to be the only leader in posting
positive Utilization (> 2 points gain) with flat rounds against
substantially worse weather, while Minneapolis (#22) continues its reign as the largest laggard with the double-whammy of
rounds down against favorable weather followed by Philadelphia (#18) and Orlando (#3)."
n

n Curr Month
n Curr YtD

Looking at demand for the current month, rounds were off 4% vs.
Year Ago (YA), breaking our 2-month winning streak. October's
loss was driven exclusively by the 5% decline in Public facilities
while Privates managed to post a marginal gain. For the Year-toDate (YtD) period, the October loss offset much of the Aug-Sep
momentum with the resulting figure now resting at -2%. The
YtD decline continues to be exclusive to the Public sector which
is off 3% while the Private sector remains marginally up at +1%.
The year-end picture will likely show All Facility rounds down
marginally with Public facilities faring significantly worse and
Private facilities holding their own but not able to overcome the
mass and magnitude of the Public sector.

Utilization & Point Change Oct 2017
n %Utilization
Curr. Month

n Pt. Chng vs. FY '16
YtD

- 2.5
60.0% ______________________________________
2.2
53.8%

50.7%
50.0% ______________________________________
40.0% ______________________________________
______________________________________
30.0%

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

- 0.0
20.0% ______________________________________
- -0.5
10.0% ______________________________________- -1.0
-0.9

0.0% ______________________________________- -1.5
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance; Pellucid

The Pellucid PersPecTive

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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - December 2017