The Pellucid Perspective - March 2018 - 14

MARKET FOCUS

Philly course operators
not flying high
Philadelphia, PA Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA)

n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using
a Pellucid weighted scoring system on 8 variables ranging from
Population Growth to Estimated Profitability-per-Available
Round. In this issue, we'll profile the 18th healthiest market, the
Philadelphia PA Metro Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA).
If we had been on our game, we would have profiled Philly
last month as they basked in the recent glory of their Super Bowl
Championship but we'll make up for it this month by giving
them their well-deserved top billing. It's probably better for golf
operators that this major event occurred during the offseason
and hopefully by the time the temperatures rise and the snow
melts they'll have partied themselves out and minds will turn
once again to golf. For residents of this moderate-length season,
Philly is home to an ample supply of golf although some of the
best golf in this market consists of private clubs of which there
are an abundance (somewhat unusual for what's generally known
as a blue-collar, working-man's town). Let's take a look at the
metrics for Philadelphia and see whether local golf operators are
celebrating or still grinding away toward success that may be as
elusive as the Eagles' championship journey.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), the Philadelphia CBSA ranks 10nd
among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just
under 10M rounds. (That facility-reported tally counts both local
and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that
Philly is home to a healthy local golfer base of roughly 0.5M golfers (ranking 6th in the US, remember this is only local, resident
population, doesn't count the tourist crowd). That golfer base is
served by a reasonable supply amount of 194 18-hole equivalents
(EHE), producing a healthy ratio of roughly 2.5K local resident
golfers per EHE, well above the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments skews heavily to Private at 47%
of total holes compared to the national average of 27% (wow).
The Private vs. Public access balance is 47%/53% which is considerably skewed to Private vs. the national average of 27%/73%. The
balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public-Premium)
vs. Value golf (Public-Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is
61%/39%, which is also materially skewed to Value-added vs. the
50%/50% national distribution. Within Public-Regulation golf,
the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 28%/55%/17%
vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24% which shows that the
Public-access regulation supply tends to cluster in the middle
range vs. the US benchmark (55% vs. 42% nationally). Remember that in this particular analysis Pellucid allows the definitions

14 The Pellucid PersPecTive

Private

PublicPremium

PublicValue

PublicPrice

Learning
& Practice

Philadelphia, PA
CBSA

Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac

Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline*
- '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level* **
- Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole
vs. ks) (EHE)
Rounds & GF Revenue Health
- % Utilization Rate
- Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public
Regulation EHE ($Ks)
- Revenue per Available Round
(RevpAR)

Future
Facility

Tot US

Index
vs. US

486.1 22,900
194 14,672
2,512 1,561

161

47%
14%
27%
9%
4%

27%
23%
28%
16%
6%

174
60
96
53
65

8%
-12%

9%
-12%

86
100

-20%

-21%

26.4

26.7

46%
56%
$1,144 $1,155
$20
$19

82
99
105

* Inverse index, lower is better
** Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply

Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)

of Premium/Value/Price to "float" across each of the markets
driven by the local market price spectrum so the absolute price of
golf isn't necessarily revealed by a balanced distribution (i.e. Value
golf could still be expensive in the absolute).
During the "go-go" years of supply development (1990-2000),
Philadelphia was at the vanguard of the "build a course a day"
March 2018

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - March 2018