The Pellucid Perspective - April 2018 - 11

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0% ________________________________________________________________________________________________

-5% ________________________________________________________________________________________________

-10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-15% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-17% -17%
-20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-20%

-25% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-30% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-33%
-35% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours) so our
readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional figures, the 61 markets figures
or specific to your individual facility, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the
Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website by clicking the
"Reports" button below.
The above chart shows us that March weather capped off an entirely ugly Q1, registering the 2nd consecutive 17% decline in
Golf Playable Hours vs. the same month '17 results. One of the contributors to this that you don't see on our regional map is that
much of the upper GL, Midwest and the Northeast had little playable weather in the month which is unusual and was significantly
off their 10-year Norm. We'll see how this abnormally late season open in the northern climes plays out as the season progresses
but, for many geographies, they watched the Masters while the outside temps were struggling to get to 40, strange! If our colleague
Casey Alexander's hypothesis that March-April weather sets the tone for golf equipment sales, it could be chilly for that industry
segment as well, the way the '18 season is starting out. Pellucid weather impact subscribers have the benefit of knowing what the
full-year GPH forecast is for their facility or market and whether we're predicting things to get better, worse or we'll just carry this
early-season deficit through the balance of the year. If you want to be similarly "in-the-know," subscribe by clicking the "Cogniligic
Weather Impact Analysis" button below.
Reports

Cognilogic Weather Impact Analysis

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthly Utilization Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
25 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
21
20 ________________________________________________________________________________________________

15 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
10 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
5
5 ________________________________________________________________________________________________

- ________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech

The above chart represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (51%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
February again demonstrates the importance and need for Utilization as the cardinal performance metric of demand vs. played
rounds. For the 2nd consecutive month, although we experienced a meaningful decline in rounds, Utilization actually registered
a healthy gain due to the fact that the weather decline (-17%) significantly exceeded our rounds loss (-9%), resulting in higher
Utilization. In other words, we've now "beaten the weather" for the initial two months of the year and need not panic regarding
consumer interest and programs that are in place. Until Utilization starts registering declines, we stay the course and make whatever financial adjustments are required (Utilization tells us that we're at the mercy of Mother Nature but, regardless, there's not the
money coming into the till we expected so some short-term spending decisions may need to be made). There's still lots of golf to be
played this season but history has also shown us that making up early season demand deficits is challenging unless we get some in/
late-season climate favorability (to which Pellucid Cognilogic subscribers have at least a glimpse of the probability and magnitude).
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - April 2018
