The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018 - 9

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
YtD
________________________________________________________________________________________________
6%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
1%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-5%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-13%
-17% -17%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-20%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-26%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-33%

Source: Golf Datatech

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours) so our
readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional figures, the 61 markets figures
or specific to your individual facility, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the
Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website by clicking the
"Reports" button below.
The above chart shows us that June weather basically mirrored last year's June weather at the national level. If you flip back to
the Weather Impact section, you'll see that this was a mix of positive and negative results by region vs. a large number of regions
posting neutral results (i.e. not seeing a number of black arrows in the left position). Pellucid report subscribers received last week
the underlying figures for the 45 weather-based regions and the 61 major metro markets as well as the June "call" for the end of the
year for their planning purposes. If you want to be similarly "in-the-know," subscribe by clicking the "Cogniligic Weather Impact
Analysis" button below.
Reports

Cognilogic Weather Impact Analysis

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthly Utilization Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
YtD
25.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
21.3

20.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
15.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
8.6
10.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
8.0
5.0
5.0
5.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________

- ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(0.3)

Source: Golf Datatech

The above chart represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (51%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
May continues to demonstrate the importance and need for Utilization as the cardinal performance metric of demand vs. played
rounds. The euphoria of our first month of positive "comps" in Played Rounds is tempered by the flat UR meaning demand simply
followed weather upward for the month. The good news is that a) rounds went up following the weather and b) the magnitude
of the uplift was roughly equal to the weather favorability. Once again, at least at the national level, the result tells us that there's
nothing fundamentally wrong with our programming and operations but they could be tweaked to produce rounds demand results
exceeding the weather in the remaining summer months. The YE GPH forecast did improve slightly at the national level so,
while we're not going to get back all of the rounds losses through the first 5 months, at least the year-end picture of what Mother
Nature will give us is improving slightly and we won't be down by double-digits in demand come 12/31. For many markets and
their component facilities, you need to make a call relatively soon regarding whether to "double-down" on being able to steal share
in the back half of the year or trimming budgets to align with likely (shallower) demand declines and associated revenue shortfalls
for this calendar year.
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The Pellucid PersPecTive

9
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - July 2018
