The Pellucid Perspective - July 2019 - 13

Golf Playable Hours 2019 Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec YtD
40% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
30%
30% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
19%
20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
9%
10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
1%

0% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-2%

-10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-7%
-20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-20%
Source: Pellucid

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets or individual
facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website by clicking the "Reports"
button below.
The above chart shows us that June weather registered a 2nd consecutive month of negative "comps." The continued downward
weather pressure in June has basically brought us even for the YtD period with what was a relatively unremarkable '18 benchmark.
Not the picture we were expecting or hoping for this year after a lackluster weather season in '18. There's still an opportunity for
a moderate rebound which, in fact, our year-end weather forecast continues to call for so we're not going to panic yet and operators shouldn't either. Obviously results and projections vary across geographies so if you want a look into our weather forecasting
"crystal ball" for the year-end figure, you can get that at facility level or for the 45 regions and national level by subscribing at the
button links below:
Reports

US/Regions/Markets Weather Impact Tracking

Cognilogic Weather Impact Analysis

Utilization Rate 2019 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
YD
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
6.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
5.0
3.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
0.7

'- ________________________________________________________________________________________________
'(3.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(1.6)
(4.1)

'(6.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(5.4)
'(9.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(11.1)
'(12.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid

The above chart represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (52%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
We saw a marginal gain in Utilization in May due to the combination of decreased demand but a result that outperformed the
even more unfavorable weather. Unfortunately we've seen the June weather which broke to the negative so the best we can likely
hope for is a flat rounds demand result which would give us a 2nd consecutive month of Utilization gain and some confidence that
demand softness is weather-driven vs. consumer ambivalence. The key question remains for '19 of, "Did we wring as many rounds
out of the weather favorability as we could have?" and to answer that question, you're going to need a window into Utilization (and
Pellucid is currently the only portal to that key measure in the industry). We know the year-end weather impact forecast, what we
don't know is how the golf consumers and their demand will respond to our forecast of more favorable weather for the balance of
the year.
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The Pellucid PersPecTive

13
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The Pellucid Perspective - July 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - July 2019
