The Pellucid Perspective - September 2019 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT

AUGUST
Pac
NW Cst N
/

Slight Downer

ugust's weather impact continued to trade in a fairly
narrow range vs. an underwhelming '18 "comp" as Golf
Playable Hours (GPH) were down 2% for the 2nd
consecutive month. That also maintains the flat Year-to-Date
(YtD) results at -0.1%. YtD regional GPH breadth swung to
unfavorable at 1:2 with 11 favorable regions countered by 21
unfavorable regions countered by 23 unfavorable regions (with
13 in the neutral zone of +/- 2%). Looking at weather impact
performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, both weekparts (weekday vs. weekend) are essentially flat and that flatness also extends to the dayparts (Mon-Sun) with Wednesday's
being the lone standout (down). The Year-End (YE) forecast
continues to provide encouragement that the remaining months
of the year will provide favorability and a slight "tailwind" (our
subscribers know this number, everyone else will have to either
guess or order one of our weather impact reports/services (see
link below) to know how much of a tailwind).

August is traditionally a fairly stable
and predictable month for weather
variance at the national level so,
while it was disappointing that we
didn't see positive movement, the
results are consistent with
the historical pattern.

Pac
NW Cst S
/

No
CA Coast
/

Pac
Inland N
/

No
Rck Mtn
/

Pac
Inland S
/

C CA
Valley N
/

C CA
Valley C
/

So
CA Coast
/

No
NV
/

No
Int Mtn
/

So
NV
/

Cen
CA Val So
/

So
Int Mtn
/

Des
SW West
/

Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA

Played Rounds data for July published by Golf Datatech were
also once again fractionally down (i.e. -0.1%) producing a modest
Utilization gain for the month of <1 point (we'll take it though).
For the YtD period, rounds are off marginally against mathematically flat weather producing a fractional Utilization decline
through July. As always, beneath this national picture, there are
winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates
among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid's designated Top
25 markets) and this next-level-detail of results is also available to
Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact
report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "August is traditionally a fairly
stable and predictable month for weather variance at the national
level so, while it was disappointing that we didn't see positive
movement, the results are consistent with the historical pattern.
What is disappointing is that we're playing against a very poor
'18 weather-wise so we should be seeing more favorable "comps"
vs. an abnormally low base last year. Basically what we're getting

10 The Pellucid PersPecTive

C
Rc

>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA

is a carbon copy of a non-stellar weather year. At the market
level, we're seeing Utilization "winners" in Minneapolis, Seattle,
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh all posting >2 point gains YtD. The
biggest losers in YtD Utilization at the market level are concentrated in CA (Orange County & San Francisco) and TX (Dallas
& Houston). I'm beginning to question our year-end forecast
which is still showing we'll be up >2% but, with 8 months in the
books and basically flat YtD, that means we're going to have to
show meaningfully better weather in the closing 4 months (and
it will primarily only benefit the southern and coastal regions).
We'll continue trust the forecast and our math but it's going to be
a sprint at this point."
n
September 2019

De
SW E
/

The Pellucid Perspective - September 2019

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