The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 14

MARKET FOCUS

Seattle fundamentals provide
reason for "high" hopes
Seattle/Tacoma, WA Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA)

n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables ranging
from Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization. In this
issue, we'll profile the 8th-ranked market, the Seattle-Tacoma
WA CBSA. According to Trippy.com, it's home to "Hempfest
the largest "Legalize It" festival in the country, and is a favorite
among Seattle cops due to the general friendly, no-violence atmosphere." We'll take their word for it and thankfully it only
eats into (bad pun for edibles) one golfing day each year.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), Seattle punches below its
composite ranking weight coming in 25th among US markets
with facility-reported annual demand of just over 3M rounds
(that's facility-reported, through-the-turnstiles tally counts
both local and (limited) tourist play). Looking at the golf
consumer base, we see that Seattle is home to a healthy local
golfer base of just under 300K golfers (this is local, resident
population only, doesn't count any of the golf tourist crowd).
That golfer base is served by a solid amount of supply with
97 18-hole equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an average
ratio of just under 3,000 local resident golfers per EHE, a very
healthy level at nearly twice the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments shows a meaningful
bias to the Private segment at 34% of holes (a 122 index vs.
the national contribution). The split between Private/Public is
34%/66% which is significantly more skewed to Private than
the national average of 28%/72%. The balance between Valueadded golf supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf
(Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 54%/46%
skewing slightly to Value-added vs. the national average of
47%/53%. Remember also that we establish the Premium/
Value/Price segments by individual market so that's factoring
in differences in cost of living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike NGF where New York City has the same price
segmentation as Kansas City, go figure). Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price
is 40%/30%/29% which meaningfully "tilts" the direction of
Public-Premium vs. the national picture of 31%/47%/23% (at
the expense of Public-Value, the "bunny slopes" seem to be
holding their own compared to the national benchmark).
Using our new methodology for calculating Supply/Demand equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00'17 based on rounds demand change vs. supply change, you

14 The Pellucid PersPecTive

Private

PublicPremium

PublicValue

PublicPrice

Learning
& Practice

Tot US

Index
vs. US

286.8 25,500
97 16,749
2,957 1,535

193

Seattle-Tacoma,
WA CBSA

Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac

Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'17 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'17 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'17 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Av. Facility Throughput & Efficiency
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate

Future
Facility

34%
20%
15%
15%
16%

28%
19%
29%
14%
9%

5%
-13%

11%
-7%

-13%

-17%

28.2
41%

26.5
42%

122
106
104
106
177

106
98

* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply

Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)

December 2019

http://www.Trippy.com

The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019

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