The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019 - 15

Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that Seattle
is home to a healthy local golfer base of just under
300K golfers (this is local, resident population only,
doesn't count any of the golf tourist crowd).
can see in the table above that Supply expanded 5% over that
period roughly half the rate of the national average of 11% (a
Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly 0.6%).
On the facility-reported rounds demand side of the equilibrium equation is an offsetting factor to slower supply growth
as Seattle's loss in rounds demand over the '00-'17 period is
13% or roughly twice the national rate of decline. The confluence of these two factors results in the cumulative supply dilution resting at -13% which is slightly better than the national
benchmark of -17%.
The average EHE has throughput of roughly 28K rds/yr.
Factoring in weather and daylight, the more accurate measure
is the market's respectable 41% Utilization Rate which lands
near the national average (42%). This means that, after neutralizing the weather impact of a moderate-length season, the
market's average golf "factory" runs at a similar throughput
to the average US course (remember also that this is the supposed "land of rain", doesn't seem to be significantly handicapping golf operators).

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In summary, the primary contributors to Seattle's Top 10
standing are population growth, golfers-per-EHE, slightly
healthier supply dilution and strong Revenue-per-Available
Round. The primary mitigating factors are that the healthy
consumer base isn't playing to the national rate in frequency
which impacts their rounds output as a market. We'll see how
the supply dilution picture changes (they could still stand to
"lose" another ~10 EHEs according to our calculations) which
would also improve the market health for existing (surviving)
operators. Like many other markets, not a bad place to parachute into if you can get the right price point coupled with a
solid property in an insulated location. How would you determine that, glad you asked.
If you'd like to order the full scorecard with over 50 measures for each market and the composite ranking scores, you
can do so at Pellucid's website by clicking here. You can also
get facility draw area-based analysis quickly and affordably by
ordering the GLMA Market Workbook; click here for more
information.
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The Pellucid Perspective - December 2019

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