The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 15
In summary, the primary contributors to San Fran's Top 10 standing
are golfers-per-EHE, Play Rate and strong Revenue-per-Available
Round. The primary mitigating factor is sub-par population growth
and slight under-indexing on Supply Dilution and Utilization.
in the table above that Supply expanded 14% over that period
compared to the national average of 11% (a Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly 0.6%). On the facilityreported rounds demand side of the equilibrium equation the
supply expansion during that period was exacerbated by a rounds
demand decline of 9% over the '00-'17 period which is similar
to the 7% national rate of decline. The confluence of these two
factors results in the cumulative supply dilution resting at -18%
comparable to the national benchmark of -17%.
The average EHE has throughput of roughly 33K rds/yr
which is well above the national average. Factoring in weather
and daylight, the more accurate measure is the market's 40%
Utilization Rate which is comparable the national average
(42%). This means that, after neutralizing the weather impact
of a moderate-length season, the market's average golf "factory"
runs at roughly the same throughput as the average US course
(consistent with the average oversupply position as well).
In summary, the primary contributors to San Fran's Top 10
www.PellucidCorp.com
standing are golfers-per-EHE, Play Rate and strong Revenueper-Available Round. The primary mitigating factor is sub-par
population growth and slight under-indexing on Supply Dilution and Utilization. Given the multiple constraints in the
Bay Area market (land, pricing power, environmentalists etc.) it
would seem that the key to success would be figuring out how to
unlock increasing rounds from the current, very healthy in size,
golfer base. It also wouldn't hurt the existing operators if the
current supply drawdown rate (~4% per annum) continues. Of
course, that presumes you're not one of the casualties along the
way but, if you could find a reasonable offer for any reasonable
(and government/citizen) acceptable alternative use, being one
of "the plows" wouldn't be so bad.
If you'd like to order the full scorecard with over 50 measures
for each market and the composite ranking scores, you can do
so at Pellucid's website by clicking here. You can also get facility
draw area-based analysis quickly and affordably by ordering the
GLMA Market Workbook; click here for more information. n
The Pellucid Perspective
15
https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/top-golf-markets-ranking-and-measures
https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/top-golf-markets-ranking-and-measures
https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/market-analysis
https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/market-analysis
https://go.golfnowbusiness.com/explore-this-top-golf-solution
http://www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020
TOC
Belmont GC transaction: Woke ambition meets joke financials
USGA Distance Study, data galore but few insights
Observations from integrated GBC/PGA Merchandise Show events
January GPH rising tide lifts most (in-season) geography boats
Dec Utilization delivers; Weather up, Rounds up
San Francisco holds its own, strong golfer base is underleveraged
Transactions edge out closures fueled by KSL/Heritage deal
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - Belmont GC transaction: Woke ambition meets joke financials
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - USGA Distance Study, data galore but few insights
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - Observations from integrated GBC/PGA Merchandise Show events
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - January GPH rising tide lifts most (in-season) geography boats
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - Dec Utilization delivers; Weather up, Rounds up
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - San Francisco holds its own, strong golfer base is underleveraged
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - Transactions edge out closures fueled by KSL/Heritage deal
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2020 - 17
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