The Pellucid Perspective - June 2020 - 15

is 36%/41%/23% which is only moderately skewed to PublicPremium (at the expense of Public-Value) vs. the national picture of 31%/47%/23%.
Using our new methodology for calculating Supply/Demand equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00'17 based on rounds demand change vs. supply change, you
can see in the table above that Supply expanded 10% over that
period, similar to the national average of 11% (a Compound
Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly 0.6%). On the facility-reported rounds demand side of the equilibrium equation,
that supply expansion was exacerbated by a rounds demand
decline of 13% over the '00-'17 period (nearly 2x the national
rate of decline, wow!). The confluence
of these two factors results in the cumulative supply dilution resting at -23% or
meaningfully higher than the national
benchmark of -17% (this may be attributed to the fact that the market is home
to the NGF, the authors of the "if you
build it they will come" theory, LOL).
This suggests that 56 facilities could
disappear next week in Miami and the
market wouldn't likely miss a beat.
Despite that, the average EHE has
a healthy throughput of ~29K rds/yr
which is slightly above the national average. Factoring in weather and daylight, the more accurate measure is the
market's 39% Utilization Rate which
is slightly below the national average
(42%). This means that, after neutralizing the weather impact of a moderatelength season, the market's average golf
"factory" runs at slightly lower throughput than the average US course (so much
for the assumed benefits of a 12-month
season).
In summary, the primary contributors
to Miami's Top 15 standing are Future
Population Growth, Play Rate (round
per capita), the local Golfer Base and
Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR,
driven by slightly below average Utilization but above average Rate-per-Played
Round). The "downers" are lagging velocity given the season length, weather
and available daylight, the imbalance
of Private to Public golf and the overall
supply level relative to what historically
was needed to meet demand. Miami is
one of the most diverse cities in the US
by nationality and race and that was on
display recently in the largely peaceful
protests to the death of George Floyd.
While the high proportion of Private
golf in the market likely isn't conducive
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to fostering a dialogue among races and ethnicities, the publicaccess courses should be a place where people from different
backgrounds and worldviews can come together for a few hours,
share some stories and (a few) good shots and part company better informed and enriched from the experience. It's a small contribution public golf can make in Miami and nationwide, but it's
at least a first step on the proverbial thousand mile journey for us
both as a country and as individuals.
If you'd like the full profile of the any US market including all
the underlying numbers, you can get that or a facility draw areabased analysis quickly and affordably by ordering the GLMA
Market Factbook; click here for more information.
n

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The Pellucid Perspective - June 2020

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