The Pellucid Perspective - September 2020 - 15

ments by individual market so that's factoring in differences
in cost of living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike NGF
where Manhattan NY has the same price segmentation as
Manhattan KS, go figure). Within Public-Regulation golf, the
distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 41%/38%/15%
which is heavily skewed to Public-Premium (at the shared expense of Public-Value and L&P) vs. the national picture of
31%/47%/23%.
Using our new methodology for calculating Supply/Demand equilibrium and how the picture has changed from
'00-'19 based on rounds demand change vs. supply change,
you can see in the table above that Supply expanded only 4%
over that period, much lower than
the national average of 11% (a Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR)
of roughly 0.6%). On the facilityreported rounds demand side of the
equilibrium equation, that supply
expansion is juxtaposed to a rounds
demand decline of 11% over the '00'19 period (~1.5x the national rate of
decline). The confluence of these two
factors results in the cumulative supply
dilution resting at -15% or similar to
the national benchmark of -17%. This
suggests that ~20 facilities could disappear next week in St. Louis and the
market wouldn't likely miss a beat.
Looking at the productivity of the
average facility using our proprietary
velocity measure, they produce just
over 20K rounds per year which is
well below the national average. Applying our industry-exclusive Utilization measure (played rounds/capacity rounds), we see that after weather
adjustment the market fares better at
41% Utilization Rate which mirrors
the national average (42%).
In summary, on the plus side of
the ledger St. Louis has a solid golfer
base relative to their current supply
and the distribution of supply is reasonably balanced compared to many
other markets which are much more
"top-heavy" in Public-Premium and/
or Private. On the minus side of our
market analysis ledger, there's room
for "healthy" supply contraction which
would improve the fundamentals of
velocity. Additionally, turning around
the rounds demand trend from the
slight annual downward drift to anything in the plus column (that would
also mitigate the need for supply contraction) is an area for improvement.
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Overall however, it's not a bad scorecard for St. Louis in the
absolute or versus the nation. Against the Top 25 markets universe however they lag in several of the performance measures
which awards them the anchor position in our latest ranking.
If you'd like more detailed market profiling on any US geography, you can order a Golf Local Market Analysis specific
to that location or market. If you'd like a broader overview
of the largest and strongest US golf markets you can order
the '19 update of Pellucid's Top 25 US Golf Markets Health
Scorecard and be better informed with rigorous, broad independent facts.
n

The Pellucid Perspective

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/GLMA-Data-workbook-p235238751 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Top-25-US-Golf-Markets-Scorecard-c60114161 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Top-25-US-Golf-Markets-Scorecard-c60114161 https://www.kempersports.com/ http://www.PellucidcorP.com

The Pellucid Perspective - September 2020

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