The Pellucid Perspective - December 2020 - 13

Golf Playable Hours 2020 Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Q1

YtD

Q2

Q3

Q4

________________________________________________________________________________________________
31%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
24%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
21%
19%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
9%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
2%
1%
0%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-1%
-2%
-2%
-2% -2%
-2%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-6%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Pellucid

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets or individual
facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the Geographical
Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website.
The above graphic shows the off-the-charts November weather conditions as GPH surged by 31% compared to the same
month last year (which wasn't abnormally low for those of you wondering about the strength of the " base year " ). This will be an
interesting test for November rounds demand as they'll need to post a 30%+ gain to continue our winning streak on Utilization.
That's an " even-odds bet " in our books but we'd still be quite happy with demand +25% against +30% weather. In our November
Outside the Ropes issue Jim K. makes " the call " for the year on national rounds and the shape of those gains for those interested
in a deeper dive. If you want a look into our weather forecasting " crystal ball " for the year-end figure, you can get that at facility
level or for the 45 regions and national level by subscribing here. For individual facilities, our web-based, facility-specific weather
forecast for the balance of the calendar year can be obtained through our Cognilogic Foresight service.

Utilization Rate 2020 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
YD
20.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
16.3

14.9
15.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
12.2

10.7
10.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
7.2
5.3
4.7
4.2
5.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________

- ________________________________________________________________________________________________

(5.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
'(4.4)

(10.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(15.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
'(13.6)
(20.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________
'(20.1)

(25.0) ________________________________________________________________________________________________

Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid

The above graphic represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (53%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
Continuing the current trend, against the basically flat October weather, we saw continued double-digit gains in demand which
produced a 16 point Utilization gain for the month further strengthening the YtD figure to ~+5 pts. As you see in the " staircase "
above since May, we've now posted 6 consecutive months of Utilization gains with the last 4 being unprecedented double-digits.
This is a first since we started industry tracking and, while it's not likely being driven by the pure joy of the sport or it being the
favorite activity of an increasing number of consumers, it does signal that existing and lapsed golfers as well as likely some number
of newcomers are embracing the sport under current conditions to our benefit. We'll go out on a limb and predict that November
rounds will register 25%+ based on the combined trendline as well as the phenomenal November weather contribution. In the
meantime, bask in the glory of this visual and something we haven't seen as analysts in the 20 years we've been tracking Utilization
which is the true measure of industry performance as it relates to demand strength.

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The Pellucid Perspective - December 2020

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