The Pellucid Perspective - August 2021 - 16

MARKET FOCUS
Motown occupies #18 in latest ranking, accelerated
closures helping market stabilize
Detroit, MI, Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US
Golf Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the
golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within
that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative
health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables
ranging from Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization.
With our 2019 update of the Top 25 we continue to flip the
tables and start from the bottom and work our way up (because
we never get to the bottom of the list before the next update in
the top-down method). For regular followers of this column,
you'll notice 2 changes in the map above and noted in the Legend:
1)
We're now distinguishing within Public-Regulation
Length the Munis (green symbols) vs. For Profits (blue symbols)
and 2) We've added Closed Courses since 2000 (black
symbols). Our recently-released '20 version of the GLMA
contains numerous enhancements in supply tracking as well as
annual timeseries charts for rounds ('00-'19) and golfers ('05'19)
for every US location.
In this issue, we'll profile the 18th-ranked market, the Detroit,
MI Metro CBSA. One has to admire the grit, determination
and perseverance that the city collective has shown to claw
their way back from the largest US municipality bankruptcy in
history back in '13. Along with that we've seen the golf supply
correct in parallel to the city's fortune which has helped their
supply/demand balance improve markedly as shown below.
Along the way however there are bumps such as the fact that
Detroit doesn't appear to be catching the full COVIdend based
on Golf Datatech's Dec '20 figures (+5% vs. US +14%).
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), Detroit punches well above its
composite ranking weight coming in 11th in rounds among
US markets with facility-reported annual demand of ~5.5M
rounds (that's the through-the-turnstiles tally which counts
both local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer
base, we see that the market is home to a healthy local golfer
base of ~400K golfers (this is local, resident population only).
That golfer base is served by an ample supply base of 210 18hole
equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an average ratio of
nearly 2K local resident golfers per EHE, a level well above the
national average (151 index).
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows a slight bias to the
Public-Premium and Value segments vs. the national distribution
(both ~114 index). The split between Private/Public is
24%/76%, similar to the national average of 28%/72%. The
balance between Value-added golf supply (Private & Public
Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning &
16 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Closed
Golfer
Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Supply/Demand Balance
- '00-'19 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'19 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'19 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Av. Facility Throughput & Efficiency
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate
* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply
Detroit, MI Tot US
416.4 21,065
210 16,034
1,983 1,314
3.360
24% 29%
Index
vs. US
151
81
28% 25% 114
26% 23% 114
16% 15% 108
6% 8%
70
4% 11%
-6% -7%
-10% -17%
5,551,514
26.4 26.5 100
55% 42% 131
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
August 2021
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - August 2021
